Gulf crude exports averaged 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with volumes topping pre-war benchmarks on 14 days in September, provisional Kpler data showed Monday.

The seven-day moving average crossed 18 million bpd for roughly half the month, even as tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz intensified. UK Maritime Trade Operations has logged at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

How high did flows actually climb?

The Kpler seven-day moving average of 18.3 million bpd on September 30 outpaced the 18 million bpd the region averaged in the 12 months before the US-Israeli war with Iran. Vortexa separately tracked a 14-day moving average of 18.6 million bpd for Middle East crude and condensate exports, above the 10-year seasonal norm.

Saudi Arabia drove the rebound. Three weeks after a September 10 attack on its East-West pipeline, the kingdom began loading from both the Red Sea and the Gulf. The pivot forced more VLCCs to shuttle crude through Hormuz and pushed ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman to capacity.

"Most of this month-over-month increase seen in September comes from Saudi Arabia, which is ramping up exports to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries," Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang said.

Iraq added incremental volume. Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company and several refiners chartered tankers to load Basrah crude inside the strait after Baghdad secured Iranian permission in August for Iraqi vessels to transit Hormuz.

LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz climbed in September to their highest level since February.

What's happening in the waterway?

Marisks reported at least seven incidents in the past week. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III, owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile and caught fire. Kuwait Oil Tanker Company declined to comment.

On October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi, managed by Dynacom, was hit by an unknown projectile northeast of Jazirat Um Fayarin, Oman, damaging its engine room. Dynacom did not immediately respond. Crew on both vessels were reported safe.

Why are ships being hit?

Marisks warned that transiting ships face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" given the recent sharp increase in traffic. The firm floated a kill-box theory.

"The recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels," Marisks said. "Instead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or 'kill box', with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area."

Before the war began on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container vessels, carrying some 20% of global crude and LNG supply.

What does it mean for shippers and operators?

For Asian refiners, the rebound eases a tight market. "This increase in Middle East supplies will also help alleviate tightness in the oil market, especially for Asian refiners," Tang said.

For tanker owners, the calculus has shifted sharply. War-risk premiums, rerouting costs and P&I exposure have all climbed as VLCCs and Aframaxes transit a narrower corridor with daily strike reports.

For charterers and forwarders, the bottleneck sits in the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship zone, now saturated. Any further disruption to the East-West pipeline, or to Hormuz transit itself, would compress Saudi export optionality within a single voyage cycle.

Where this goes next

Kpler and Vortexa both confirm flows back at pre-war baselines, but the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that briefly eased tensions in June and July has now lapsed. The forward question is whether ship-to-ship infrastructure can absorb continued Saudi loadings, or whether Hormuz traffic itself becomes the throttle on the rebound.