Middle East crude exports will reach 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war with Iran began in February — yet the recovery still leaves regional shipments roughly 6 million bpd short of the 18.8 million bpd moved in February, and Brent crude is trading near $106 a barrel.

Preliminary Kpler data show Saudi Arabia driving the rebound. The kingdom is on course to ship about 5.4 million bpd this month, more than double the 2.446 million bpd exported in August. Loadings at Ras Tanura, the main Gulf terminal, are set to hit around 3.6 million bpd, up from just 929,000 bpd in August — still far below the 6.411 million bpd the port handled in February.

The UAE accounts for most of the remaining increase. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to reach about 7.4 million bpd this month, with Kpler counting 19 VLCCs leaving the strait last week — each carrying roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, and excluding vessels with transponders switched off.

Why exports rebounded while production fell

The surge reflects stored crude moving to market, not restored output. Saudi Arabia told OPEC its production fell 1.9 million bpd in August to 6.238 million bpd — the lowest level since 1990 and below even the April wartime low. Renewed fighting between the US and Iran made export routes harder to use; as storage filled, producers cut back. Now that routes have reopened, stored barrels are shipping fast.

The asymmetry matters for shippers and refiners. Exports can recover within weeks. Restoring wells, pipelines and confidence in shipping lanes takes far longer.

The scale of the shock

Before the war started on February 28, Hormuz handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily — tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container ships — carrying roughly 20% of global daily crude and LNG supply. The IEA called it the biggest shock in oil market history. By May, more than 14 million bpd of Gulf supply was shut in and cumulative losses had crossed 1 billion barrels. OPEC output fell to 33.19 million bpd in April from 42.77 million bpd in February. The UAE left the group after nearly 60 years.

A partial recovery reversed in July, when the IEA said Hormuz was effectively closed again; regional loadings slid from about 20 million bpd early in the month to around 12 million bpd. The agency now expects global supply to fall 4.3 million bpd in 2026, to roughly 102 million bpd.

Commercial consequences

War-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit has jumped from around $250,000 before the war to as much as $10 million. VLCC freight from Ras Tanura to India rose 411% in August to $4.34 a barrel. Indian refiners pay an effective premium of roughly $10 a barrel above Brent for Gulf grades, and discounts on Russian and Venezuelan crude have narrowed.

India paid 60% more for crude in April-June than a year earlier, and its July import bill ran 41% higher, pressuring the trade deficit and the rupee. Saudi Aramco's official selling prices have offered some relief, and India — which buys from more than 40 countries — expects no major fuel shortage. State refiners lifted domestic LPG output nearly 20% in September to about 44,000 tonnes a day after earlier shortages triggered queues and protests.

China, Japan and South Korea have cushioned the blow with strategic reserves and term contracts. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have less financial room, facing currency pressure and fuel-rationing risk. Lower Gulf refinery runs have tightened diesel and middle-distillate supplies, compounded by speculation over possible US export restrictions.

What comes next

Negotiators have discussed a phased deal under which Iran would restore Hormuz access while the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. No agreement has been reached: President Trump has rejected Tehran's latest proposal, and Iran says it is waiting for a clear US response. Brent, which averaged $91 in August per EIA data, was near $106 on Friday.

Seven OPEC+ producers agreed on September 6 to hold October quotas unchanged, since the war prevents planned output from reaching customers. The group meets again October 4. Watch three things: any US-Iran breakthrough that fully reopens Hormuz, repairs to Saudi Arabia's damaged East-West pipeline — which would cut dependence on the strait and restore the Yanbu Red Sea route — and Saudi September production data to confirm whether output is recovering alongside exports.