Russian seaborne crude exports climbed to 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks through Sept. 27 — the highest level since early August — while the weekly gross value of those shipments jumped to $2.75 billion, the most since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The revenue surge, up roughly $180 million week on week, came as higher volumes more than offset a decline in Urals prices, which fell in line with global benchmarks. On a four-week average basis, export value rose to $2.39 billion per week in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up $290 million from the period to Sept. 20 and the highest since the 28 days to May 24.

Four-week average prices for Russia's key Urals and ESPO grades reached their highest in more than three months, supported by disruption to Saudi Arabian crude shipments while Riyadh repaired a key pipeline attacked earlier in the month. Moscow is capturing the upside from Middle East tension just as its own volumes rebound.

But the crude windfall tells only part of the story. Moscow boosted its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150,000 barrels per day, yet cut its refined products export forecast by roughly 500,000 barrels per day — a far larger swing that offsets much of the crude gain.

Ukrainian drone strikes keep knocking Russian refineries offline. The outages force crude that cannot be processed domestically into the export stream, inflating crude shipments. At the same time, domestic fuel shortages prompted the Kremlin to halt overseas sales of most diesel — a flow that averaged about 1 million barrels per day before Kyiv intensified its attacks — and the ban is expected to run through October.

Port-level detail

In the week to Sept. 27, 37 tankers loaded 27.9 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show, up from 24.99 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week. Loading operations recovered at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, though satellite imagery shows some tankers spending far longer than usual at the port's berths.

Moscow has diverted all Kazakh crude shipments this month through Novorossiysk, including Kebco-grade cargoes, freeing capacity for Russian barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is viewed as safer. One Kebco shipment left Novorossiysk during the week.

The volume of Russian crude afloat rose again, reflecting the rebound in loadings. Ships hauling Arctic crude to China typically transfer cargoes onto other vessels — east of Singapore for those on the Red Sea route, off Nakhodka or Zarubino for the Northern Sea Route, and mostly in Kozmino Bay for Sokol cargoes. These transfers introduce delays and inflate oil volumes at sea.

Where the barrels go

China and India remain the dominant buyers. Observed shipments to Asian customers, including cargoes with no confirmed final destination, rose to 3.61 million barrels per day in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up from 3.4 million in the prior period. Many recent cargoes show interim destinations such as Suez or Port Sudan and are marked "Unknown Asia" until discharge becomes clear.

Russia's Mediterranean trade is collapsing. Flows to remaining Mediterranean customers fell to about 100,000 barrels per day — the lowest since the invasion — while shipments to Turkey, Moscow's biggest buyer west of Suez, dropped to roughly 50,000 barrels per day from 80,000 in the period to Sept. 20.

Flows to Egypt, Russia's newest east Mediterranean customer, held steady at about 50,000 barrels per day for a third consecutive week. Shipments to Syria have been zero since August, after Damascus agreed to "drastically" reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with Washington on lifting remaining sanctions.

For tanker owners and operators serving these routes, the picture is mixed: more crude stems from the Baltic and Black Sea support ton-mile demand, but suppressed diesel exports remove product-tanker business that previously ran at about 1 million barrels per day. The Kremlin's next weekly data release, due Tuesday, Oct. 6, will show whether the diesel ban extends through October as expected — and whether refinery outages keep pushing more crude into an already well-supplied export market.