Brent futures climbed 2.7% to $107.08 per barrel in early trading Monday, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.4% to $94.66, after Iran refused to soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's proposal outright.

The move leaves the world's most important oil chokepoint in limbo. Brent has now risen roughly 18% for the month, including Monday's gains, and the standoff shows no sign of a quick resolution.

Iran's terms, Washington's refusal

Tehran's proposal would reopen the Strait within seven days while broader negotiations resume — but only if Washington lifts its naval blockade, eases military pressure, removes sanctions on Iranian oil sales and agrees to a ceasefire. Iran says it remains committed to those conditions despite Trump's rejection.

The president has nevertheless signaled talks could restart soon. According to an Axios report, Trump said he expects negotiations with Iran to resume this week. Qatar has been shuttling between the two sides in an effort to revive the discussions.

One-fifth of global oil and LNG

The stakes for shipping and energy markets are difficult to overstate. Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies moved through the Strait before the conflict began. Since then, shipping activity through the waterway has fallen sharply, and Gulf producers have been forced to seek alternative ways of moving crude.

The disruption extends beyond Hormuz itself. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia and on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, compounding the risk premium across regional trade lanes.

Saudi Arabia said Saturday it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by the Houthis. That came days after the kingdom intercepted six missiles aimed toward Taif and the Yanbu area.

Some barrels still moving

There are tentative signs of throughput recovering. Trump said more than 20 million barrels had transited the Strait over the weekend, according to Axios — a higher rate than at the worst of the disruption, though still far from normal flows for a channel carrying a fifth of the world's oil and LNG.

For tanker owners, the picture is mixed. Higher rates on alternative routings and war-risk premiums reward operators willing to sail the region, but the collapse in Hormuz traffic removes the single largest driver of very large crude carrier demand. Gulf producers rerouting crude around the Arabian Peninsula add tonne-miles, partially offsetting lost volumes — a dynamic freight desks will be watching as chartering patterns settle.

Diesel at record highs

Downstream, the squeeze is already visible at the pump and in cargo economics. Diesel prices in Europe and the U.S. have reached record highs as disruptions to oil and product exports from both the Middle East and Russia tighten fuel markets. For trucking fleets, airlines and container lines, bunkers and road fuel now represent a materially larger share of operating costs than they did a month ago — a cost pressure that tends to feed into freight rates with a lag.

Refined-product markets are the immediate pressure point traders are watching. Middle East export terminals and Russian product flows were already constrained before the conflict; the loss of Hormuz throughput removes cargoes that European and U.S. buyers cannot easily replace.

What comes next

The immediate trajectory hinges on whether the Qatari-brokered effort can bring both sides back to the table this week. Iran has not moved from its four conditions, and Washington has publicly rejected them, leaving the 20-million-barrel weekend flow as the only concrete sign of de-escalation. Until a ceasefire framework or sanctions relief emerges, tanker owners and fuel buyers should expect volatility in both directions.