Brent crude for November delivery climbed 1.0% to $103.64 a barrel in early Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering from a 2.6% drop in the prior session as traders weighed Saudi Arabia's renewed Red Sea exports against an unresolved Strait of Hormuz shutdown.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.9% to $90.21 a barrel at 05:06 ET, after a 3.5% slide on Tuesday. The rebound reflects shifting perceptions of how long the Middle East supply disruption will last and how much spare capacity Riyadh can route around the bottleneck.

How much crude is moving through Yanbu?

Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu following the restart of its East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data cited by Reuters shows nearly 10 million barrels of crude loaded at Yanbu and the nearby Al Muajjiz terminal. Saudi Aramco has notified customers of its October loading schedule.

The pipeline is now flowing at least 3.5 million barrels per day, roughly half of its nameplate capacity, according to Bloomberg sources familiar with the operations. That volume offers a partial release valve for Gulf producers who have watched seaborne exports stall since late February.

What remains unresolved at Hormuz?

The waterway has been effectively closed since shortly after the United States and Israel began their joint assault on Iran in late February. Diplomatic efforts led by Qatar have yet to reopen the route. Tehran continues to push for conditions linked to any reopening, while U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected reports that Washington offered sanctions relief as part of any deal.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank cautioned that traders are "still pricing in a lengthier period of disruption, even as increased oil flows out of the Gulf have eased the near-term pressure." That gap between physical flows and futures positioning shows the market has not yet accepted the Red Sea reroute as a substitute for Gulf shipping lanes.

The Brent-WTI spread of roughly $13.43 a barrel on Wednesday shows how tightly the U.S. benchmark tracks North American supply, while Brent continues to absorb the geopolitical risk premium tied to Middle East transit.

What does the disruption cost U.S. shippers?

U.S. diesel prices reached $6.53 a gallon last week, more than 70% above prewar levels. Trump is weighing measures to curb domestic fuel costs, including a possible diesel export ban, according to the Financial Times. Such a move would lock more U.S. refined product inside the country, reshaping diesel trade flows across the Atlantic Basin and tightening Pacific supply for Asian refiners.

For ocean carriers and forwarders, the diesel squeeze feeds directly into bunker costs and overland trucking surcharges at U.S. ports. A domestic-only mandate would do little to relieve Gulf-origin crude tightness, since the U.S. remains a net importer of seaborne barrels.

Where does the market go from here?

Brent's recovery to $103 shows the benchmark is still carrying a geopolitical premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's pipeline flows have eased the immediate shortfall, but until Tehran and Washington settle terms, traders will continue pricing Middle East barrels against a longer disruption horizon. The next round of Qatar-mediated talks will set the trajectory: a confirmed reopening would compress the risk premium and pull diesel back below $6 a gallon, while a breakdown would likely push Brent through $110 and deepen the export-ban debate in Washington.