Crude oil shipments from the Middle East have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates published Sept. 29, even as the US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month and attacks on tankers continue in the Strait of Hormuz.

JPMorgan analysts, led by Natasha Kaneva, described the recovery in blunt terms: "The Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again." The bank flagged the rebound as "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war," though it warned flows had been uneven across crude and refined products.

What do the numbers look like across crude and products?

Crude flows climbed to 17.5 million barrels a day, the bank said in its Sept. 29 note. Refined product flows — diesel, gasoline and similar cargoes — stood at 3 million barrels a day, equivalent to just 58% of pre-war volumes. That 40-point gap between crude and product recovery signals that downstream tanker demand for clean products from the Gulf remains structurally weaker than for dirty crude.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reached a similar conclusion from a different dataset. Its analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, put Persian Gulf oil exports — including clandestine "dark flows" — at 23.3 million barrels a day over the week ending Sept. 29, a level consistent with the 2025 calendar-year average.

How is Saudi Arabia routing barrels around Hormuz?

JPMorgan estimates that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly returned to late-June highs of about 13 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia leading the rebound. Separately, the kingdom has restored roughly half the capacity on its East-West pipeline after damage earlier in September, reopening a route that feeds Red Sea ports and bypasses Hormuz entirely.

That dual-track routing matters for shippers and tanker operators. Saudi exports "more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average," Goldman noted. The pivot to pipeline-fed Red Sea loading adds ton-miles for any cargoes rerouted toward European and Mediterranean buyers, while compressing spot demand for VLCCs on the Hormuz-to-Ras Tanura axis.

Why are higher crossings not a sign of safer waters?

JPMorgan's analysts were explicit: "higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry's increasing ability to operate under sustained risk." Tankers, insurers and P&I clubs continue to price Hormuz transit at a war-risk premium that has not meaningfully eased since the conflict began.

The divergence Goldman flagged is sharper for Iranian barrels. "We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers," the bank's analysts wrote, pointing to Saudi volumes doubling in September while Iranian crude shipments continued to contract under the US blockade of Iranian ports.

What are officials and traders actually seeing on the water?

US officials have publicly cited higher Hormuz throughput. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said 17 million barrels a day "sometimes" transited the strait. TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne, by contrast, estimated just 10 million barrels a day of crude and products getting out — a gap that underscores how vessel-tracking methodologies can produce materially different readings on identical physical flows.

What does the price tape say?

Despite the volume recovery, Brent remains on course for a third consecutive monthly gain of roughly 14% in September. Front-month futures for November — set to expire later on Wednesday — traded 0.8% higher at $103.43 a barrel at 11:40 a.m. Singapore time.

Goldman's analysts tied the price strength to lingering tail risk: "Despite the recovery in gulf exports, crude prices remain relatively well-supported, and we still worry about renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure." Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, only half-restored, sits at the top of that risk list.

For shippers, the read-through is mixed. Crude availability from the Gulf is closer to normal than at any point since the conflict began, which should ease feedstock pressure on Asian and European refiners. Clean-product tightness, however, persists. Watch October utilization on the Saudi East-West pipeline and any renewed attacks on Gulf shipping infrastructure for the next directional cue on tanker rates, refinery margins and war-risk premia.