Kuwait is producing about 2 million barrels of oil a day, roughly 75% of the 2.6 million bpd it pumped before the Iran war began in late February, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah.

The rebound marks the fastest publicly documented partial recovery among Gulf producers since the conflict started. In the opening months, Kuwaiti output collapsed below 1 million bpd after Iran moved to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

What is driving the rebound?

A growing number of tankers are now willing to transit Hormuz despite continued attacks on shipping, Sheikh Nawaf said. KPC's customers have also stepped forward to bring their own ships to load cargoes over the past month.

"More ships are getting through because people recognize there's no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz," he told Bloomberg. "Everything you do, every pipeline you build, storage facility, all of that cannot replace the vital importance of the Strait of Hormuz to international commerce."

That calculus has shifted even as Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the contested waterway. Wall Street banks now estimate Gulf shipments from Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are approaching prewar levels, with cargoes moving through Hormuz at rising volumes.

Where are the bottlenecks?

KPC is meeting its crude oil obligations to customers. The problem sits downstream: refined products. Strategic inventories of diesel and jet fuel sit at "critical levels," Sheikh Nawaf said, and Europe's recent emergency release of those products traces directly back to Kuwait's prewar role as a major regional supplier.

"Why is Europe now under this emergency diesel and jet fuel release, it's because of Kuwait," he said.

Kuwait's refineries remain operational. The binding constraint, Sheikh Nawaf argued, is the lack of freedom of navigation through the strait, not domestic processing capacity. For shippers and refiners in Europe and Asia, product availability, not crude, is the live issue through the rest of 2026.

How is KPC responding on the freight side?

The state oil company is expanding its own tanker fleet to gain control over liftings. The fleet currently numbers 29 vessels.

"We found that having a strategic tanker fleet that we own is more beneficial to us," Sheikh Nawaf said.

KPC is also weighing pipeline routes through Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The CEO offered no capacity figures, but dismissed the idea that overland infrastructure could substitute for the strait's chokepoint function. For tanker operators and VLCC owners, the message is clear: Hormuz volumes will dominate near-term Middle East trade flows regardless of pipeline politics.

What does the longer-term trajectory look like?

Kuwait's strategic projects remain on schedule despite the conflict. KPC is targeting production capacity of 4 million bpd by 2035, up from 3 million bpd today. Sheikh Nawaf described the timeline as firm.

"We're absolutely on track to increase our production capacity," he said.

The 1 million bpd expansion equals a 33% increase in nameplate capacity. Whether that growth runs through Hormuz or through the Saudi and UAE pipeline routes KPC is studying will shape the next phase of Gulf supply, and the freight tonnage that moves it, for the rest of the decade.