Majestic Maersk reopens the Red Sea corridor for Gemini

The 18,300 TEU Majestic Maersk cleared the Bab Al Mandeb strait this week, heading toward a 12 July northbound Suez Canal transit on Gemini's Asia-Med Loop 3. The vessel operates as Maersk's AE15 and Hapag-Lloyd's SE3, and the carriers said it would resume two-way Suez operations on the loop.

The transit matters because the boxship is sailing the headhaul leg, not a repositioning leg, signalling that Gemini is willing to commit laden northbound cargo to the corridor again.

What are spot rates doing on the headhaul lanes?

Drewry's weekly World Container Index showed the Shanghai-Rotterdam leg gaining 5% week-on-week to $4,933 per 40ft, ending just shy of the $5,000 mark. Shanghai-Genoa added 2% to $6,463 per 40ft. Transpacific moves were thinner: Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 2% to $6,482 per 40ft, and Shanghai-New York held flat at $7,904 per 40ft.

Will the mid-July GRIs stick?

MSC is targeting $7,700 per 40ft to both North Europe and the Mediterranean in its next FAK filing. CMA CGM is aiming for $7,000 to North Europe and $7,900–$8,500 to the Mediterranean. Only four Asia-Europe blanked sailings are scheduled for next week, leaving nominal capacity relatively tight.

Forwarders and consultants remain unconvinced. Linerlytica noted: "Carriers have started to roll-back their rates to North Europe, with spot rates for first-half July sailings failing to breach $6,000 per 40ft."

The consultant added: "Asia-Europe carriers are still pushing for another rate hike in mid-July, but the ground looks increasingly shaky, with a wide range of rates being offered in the spot market. The Gemini partners remain at the bottom of the range, with rates as low as $4,800 per 40ft on offer against rivals' rates of $6,000–$6,500 per 40ft."

What is Maersk's Suez plan?

Maersk framed the transit as a measured step back to the corridor. "This joint decision with Hapag-Lloyd comes following thorough assessments of the security situation in the Red Sea area and marks a step towards a gradual return to the trans-Suez corridor," the carrier said.

Asia-Med Loop 3 will rotate through Qingdao, Kwangyang, Ningbo, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Said, Damietta, Colombo, and Singapore. Shuttles connect Mediterranean gateway ports with Gemini's Egyptian transhipment hubs at Port Said and Damietta. Maersk expects the Suez return to free at least two vessels from the string for redeployment elsewhere.

Separately, Maersk confirmed that its US East Coast-Middle East MECL services, run outside the Gemini Cooperation by its US subsidiary, will fully return to Suez transits this month.

Are transpacific rates holding?

US west coast forwarder Freight Right flagged early softening: "Some carriers are beginning to offer small reductions of around $100–$200 week on week." With 15 July GRIs and peak season surcharges due, the broker warned that another round of increases "could risk stopping demand altogether."

Freight Right added: "The near-term outlook points to a market that is likely to hold steady or gradually decline, rather than move higher. The recent peak appears to have been reached, and without a rebound in volume, carriers may have limited room to defend current rate levels for long."

What happens next?

With demand steady but capacity looser than the GRI filings suggest, the next 10-14 days will determine whether the traditional August peak materialises on Asia-Europe and transpacific lanes, or whether the market settles into a softer summer pattern as Gemini's Suez return frees additional tonnage for redeployment.