Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. East Coast hit $11,523 per FEU on Oct. 1 — more than four times their Feb. 28 pre-crisis level — and that marks the top of the post-Hormuz crisis market, according to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand.

West Coast rates edged up 1.4% from Sept. 24 to $8,346 per FEU, while East Coast rates added 0.7% to $11,523. Both trade lanes now sit more than four times above where they stood before the Strait of Hormuz disruption upended pricing in late February.

"Spot rates from Far East to the U.S. ticked up again on October 1, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," Sand said.

What turns the market from here?

Two forces are pulling rates down. Port congestion in Asia is easing as typhoon season winds down. And China's Golden Week national holidays are cutting export volumes in the first week of October.

The demand side offers no support. "Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," Sand said.

For shippers and forwarders, that means budgeting for trans-Pacific costs far above pre-crisis baselines through the fourth quarter, even as the spot market turns. Carriers, in turn, face a slow bleed rather than a cliff — declining rates from a very high starting point, without the volume strength to defend them.

How far can East Coast rates fall?

Xeneta expects a steeper correction on the Asia–U.S. East Coast lane than on the West Coast, simply because the East Coast started higher. The East Coast premium over the West Coast reached $3,177 per FEU on Oct. 1, against just $772 before the crisis.

Sand expects that gap to narrow as rates retreat through year-end. His three-month forecast puts East Coast spot rates at $6,000–$7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates at $4,500–$5,500.

"That would be a sizable correction, but not a collapse," he said.

A $6,500 midpoint on the East Coast forecast would still represent a drop of roughly $5,000 per FEU from the Oct. 1 level — a major repricing for BCOs with open fourth-quarter contracts, and a widening spread between spot and any fixed-rate deals signed at the peak.

What happened on Asia–Europe lanes?

The trans-Pacific turn follows an earlier reversal out of the Far East to Europe. Sand said rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked well before the U.S. lanes and have been falling since the beginning of July.

Asia–North Europe spot rates fell 2.1% in the latest week to $3,726 per FEU, while Mediterranean rates dropped 4.6% to $4,105. Even so, those lanes remained 67.9% and 23.3% above their respective pre-crisis baselines.

The North Europe–U.S. East Coast transatlantic trade also eased, down 2.2% week over week to $2,893 per FEU — still 95.9% above the Feb. 28 level.

Could the outlook break again?

Sand flagged the obvious risk: geopolitics. "We can also not discount further major disruptions or geopolitical conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again," he said.

The Hormuz crisis itself proves the point. A market that now looks set for a managed, multi-month descent reversed violently once already this year, and a repeat supply shock would restore the risk premium carriers have begun to give back.

Absent a new disruption, the trajectory points to East Coast rates near $6,000–$7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates near $4,500–$5,500 within three months — elevated by historical standards, but well off the October peak.