Suez Canal containership transits rose 59% between March and September, from 139 to 221 a month, and the shift is already pulling Asia-Europe spot rates down. Windward MIOC data shows the growth concentrated in large vessels — ships of 300 metres and above, up to 24,000 TEU, the post-Panamax and ultra-large tonnage deployed on main Asia-Europe services. Transits by that segment climbed from 22 to 127 a month.

At the start of the war in March, most of these ships were only calling at Red Sea ports. By August, most were sailing through to Asian markets. Europe-to-Asia transits grew faster than Asia-to-Europe, a pattern consistent with carriers repositioning first — moving vessels and empty containers back to Asia before switching full cargo loads from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea and Suez Canal instead of around Africa, cutting one to two weeks off each voyage.

Western and some Asian carriers are crossing Bab el-Mandeb with AIS transponders off. Only 10 of 215 transits by these owners since March transmitted AIS, while Russian- and Iranian-owned ships almost all kept AIS on.

What does the return to Suez do to capacity?

The Asia-Europe container trade is heading into a capacity surplus — more ship space than cargo — in Q4. Around 100 more large containerships now transit the Suez Canal instead of sailing around Africa compared with March, trimming one to two weeks from each round trip.

Suez routing for Asia-Europe services has recovered to only about a quarter of pre-crisis levels, per Sea-Intelligence. Even that partial return matters. Carriers expanded Asia-Europe capacity by approximately 41% between May 2023 and May 2025 to cover the longer route around Africa, according to Alphaliner, so every service that switches back to Suez frees ships the trade no longer needs.

Shorter voyages mean each liner service needs fewer vessels to hold its schedule. That capacity is arriving just as Europe-bound demand softens after the summer and ahead of China's Golden Week holiday (1–7 October), when factory closures halt much of China's export production. With more space than cargo, carriers compete for bookings and cut prices to fill empty slots.

Where are rates now?

Drewry's World Container Index shows the Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rate fell about 15% between 3 and 24 September, from $4,092 to $3,485 per FEU. The decline reflects both returning capacity and softer demand. For shippers on the Asia-Europe trade, the direction of travel points to further erosion through Q4 as more services revert to Suez routing and post-Golden Week volumes stay thin. For carriers, expect blank sailings and capacity withdrawals as they attempt to defend rates against the emerging surplus. Forwarders with flexible routing will find spot leverage returning after two years of scarcity-driven pricing.

Could one strike at Bab el-Mandeb reverse it?

The surplus rests heavily on Bab el-Mandeb, the strait every Asia-Europe ship must pass unless it only serves Red Sea ports. Most of the returning capacity belongs to predominantly Western carriers — the same operators targeted by the Houthis during their maritime attack campaign of 2023–2025. These ships account for almost three-quarters of the capacity crossing the strait in August and September, and they cross with AIS off, almost certainly for security reasons.

The Houthis have continuously stated since recommencing maritime attacks this summer that they target only traffic linked to Saudi Arabia, but collateral risk remains for all other shipping in the strait. A single strike against one of these Western carriers could push traffic south again, back around Africa.

The containerships linked to China, Russia and Iran that have kept transiting are mostly smaller vessels — around 210 metres, between 2,000 and 3,500 TEU — running direct feeder services from China and India to Turkey, Egypt and Russia. If Western carriers pull back, these smaller ships would keep transit counts at the strait relatively steady even as most of the capacity disappears. Rerouted around Africa, the larger ships would face longer voyages again, tightening vessel availability and turning the surplus back into a shortage.