China–West Coast spot rates closed at $8,446 per FEU on September 23, nearly double their 12-month average of $4,381 and roughly four times what shippers paid in September 2025. On the other side of the divergence, the China–Mediterranean index has collapsed to $3,591 per FEU — down more than 50% from its July peak of $7,540 and now below where it started the year.

The two lanes on the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBXD.CNAW and FBXD.CMED) climbed together through June and into July. Over the past seven weeks they have split completely, and demand explains very little of the gap.

The pricing relationship between the two trade lanes has inverted. In January, moving a box from China to Genoa or Valencia cost about 1.7 times as much as moving one to Los Angeles. Today the math runs the other way: a West Coast box costs 2.35 times as much as a Mediterranean one.

A spread that wide usually signals American importers fighting for space while European demand dries up. SONAR's port-pair ocean booking data says otherwise.

Confirmed TEU bookings from Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian to five major Mediterranean ports are up 38% year over year, with 11 of 13 lanes showing growth. On a 28-day average, bookings are up roughly 11% since the July 1 rate peak. Bookings from the same Chinese origins into North Europe are up 26% year over year and 7.5% since July. European demand is not collapsing — it is holding steady or growing even as rates have been cut in half.

The West Coast booking picture is less uniform. Total confirmed TEUs from China to the U.S. and Canadian West Coast are up about 50% from last year, but nearly all of that growth comes from Long Beach, where bookings on all three origin lanes have more than doubled. The median West Coast lane is up only about 1% year over year. Los Angeles bookings from Ningbo are down 33%, and Oakland and Seattle are down on most lanes. Even at the most generous reading, volumes are rising at a fraction of the pace of rates.

Bookings are not a perfect proxy for containers loaded — some get canceled or rolled to later sailings. But growth this large and this widespread is hard to dismiss as noise.

Supply points the way

If demand is not driving the split, supply is at least pointing in the right direction.

On Asia–Europe, carriers have been gradually shifting services back through the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved four more Asia–Europe services off the Cape of Good Hope routing this month, and Suez container tonnage is up 54% year-to-date. The shorter route frees vessels that had been tied up in Cape diversions, so effective capacity is growing faster than cargo. Carriers are also rejecting fewer Mediterranean bookings than a year ago — 7.1% versus 8.3% — a sign of increasing space availability.

The trans-Pacific has lost capacity instead. Typhoon-driven congestion at Chinese hubs since mid-July has pulled ships out of rotation and disrupted schedules. Carriers have leaned on blank sailings, announcing nine in a single week this month. Bunker costs are rising again amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which raises the cost floor on the longest routings. Xeneta reported only 29% of vessels arrived on time globally in August, the third straight monthly decline.

But supply alone does not explain the size of the moves. SONAR data shows carriers rejecting fewer West Coast bookings than a year ago — 8.3% versus 10.1% — even as rates have quadrupled. Space, in other words, is being rationed by price rather than by a shortage of ships. Spot rates price only the cargo not covered by annual contracts, and with 10 carriers controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, small changes in available space are producing outsized price swings in both directions.

The Golden Week test

The next test comes in early October, when exporters rush to move cargo before China's Golden Week factory shutdowns. Analysts expect one more push on trans-Pacific rates before the holiday. After that, rates could ease as congestion clears and the capacity carriers have been holding back returns to the Pacific. If the Mediterranean is any guide, trans-Pacific rates can fall quickly even while bookings hold up.