The Drewry World Container Index fell 1% to $4,434 per 40ft container in the week to Thursday, 1 October, dragged down by continued erosion on the Asia–Europe trade, where spot rates have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks.

The composite index, the benchmark procurement teams reference in index-linked contracts, reflected diverging dynamics across the major East–West lanes: softening Asia–Europe pricing against a broadly stable, capacity-managed transpacific market.

Transpacific: carriers lean on blank sailings

On the transpacific, rates from Shanghai to New York rose 1% to $10,428 per feu, while Shanghai–Los Angeles held steady at $7,835 per feu. Carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings. Drewry's Container Capacity Insight shows 10 blank sailings announced for next week, down from 13 this week — an indication of increased deployed capacity.

Demand remains resilient, but the calculus shifts with China's Golden Week. Factories across China will remain shut through the holiday, reducing cargo volumes, and Drewry expects transpacific rates to decrease next week as a result.

Asia–Europe: Suez capacity returns, rates slide

The pressure point is Asia–Europe. Shanghai–Genoa rates fell 3% to $3,702 per feu, while Shanghai–Rotterdam slipped 2% to $3,399 per feu, extending a losing streak that now spans 12 weeks and reflects weak demand on the trade.

Capacity discipline is loosening at the margins. Five blank sailings have been announced for next week, down from six this week, indicating slightly more scheduled capacity. The bigger structural factor is Suez: vessel transits through the canal in Week 39 were 68% higher than in the same week last year, adding effective capacity to the trade and putting further downward pressure on rates.

Carriers are attempting to reverse the slide. Several have introduced higher FAK rates for the second half of October, after Golden Week. Drewry is sceptical: the successful implementation of these increases remains uncertain, and the consultancy expects Asia–Europe rates to keep declining next week amid the holiday.

Commercial consequences

For shippers on Asia–Europe, the trend is unambiguous: index-linked contract holders are watching reference rates grind lower, and spot buyers hold negotiating leverage heading into October FAK attempts that may not stick. BCOs with October tenders can reasonably push for lower fixed rates given 12 weeks of consecutive declines and returning Suez capacity.

For carriers, the arithmetic is worsening. Blank sailings are the primary lever, but the reduction in announced cancellations on both trades — from 13 to 10 on the transpacific and from six to five on Asia–Europe — suggests carriers see enough volume risk in sailing full schedules, or are reluctant to cut deeper into networks. Restoring Suez routings adds effective capacity faster than demand is recovering, undermining rate discipline.

Forwarders face a timing question on Asia–Europe: book spot now at falling rates, or wait out the mid-October FAK increases that may fail. On the transpacific, stable Shanghai–Los Angeles pricing at $7,835 per feu offers little arbitrage window, and Golden Week factory closures will thin cargo flows in the immediate term regardless.

Geopolitical backdrop

The East–West market remains under pressure on multiple fronts. China's Golden Week has begun, with factory closures affecting cargo flows. Uncertainty around Houthi activity in the Red Sea persists even as Suez transits climb, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect shipping operations.

One potential demand tailwind: the extended US–China trade truce could support a rebound in US-bound demand after the holiday period, a factor transpacific carriers will weigh as they set post-Golden Week capacity.

Drewry expects the market to remain volatile in the near term, with demand, capacity changes and geopolitical developments driving freight rates — and with Asia–Europe rates likely to extend their decline next week.