Container rates from east Asia and China to the US climbed again this week, with East Coast rates sitting between $9,600-11,500/FEU and West Coast rates between $7,400-8,300/FEU — both trade lanes holding near the highs last seen in mid-2022. Liquid chemical tanker rates ex-US Gulf were flat to slightly higher over the same period.

The spot rally has now delivered shippers a steep premium compared with just three months ago. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said shippers are paying on average $2,691/FEU (+31%) more to the US East Coast and $1,280/FEU (+18%) more to the West Coast than on 1 July.

But the climb may be running out of road. "For the high-flying spot rates from Far East to US East and West coasts, we may just begin to see the end of that rising trend as we get into the first half of October," Sand said.

Mixed readings across the indices

The spread across rate providers this week reflects a market at an inflection point. Drewry's rates rose 2% from Shanghai to Los Angeles and were flat from Shanghai to New York. Freightos rates climbed 4% to the West Coast and slipped 1% to the East Coast.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) edged down 0.03% — the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of gains. The NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI), by contrast, rose 4.8% to the West Coast and 5.8% to the East Coast.

Carriers continue to defend the rate levels with capacity discipline. Drewry counted 15 blank sailings announced for next week, up from nine in the current week.

Even so, Drewry expects rates to decrease next week ahead of China's Golden Week holiday, which runs 1-7 October.

Demand holding, congestion persisting

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said the east-west peak season started early back in May and pushed rates up sharply into early July — and transpacific rates remain at about peak levels.

"Resilient transpacific demand – possibly helped by the lack of a tariff hike in late July, and now including a last push to get containers moved before the Golden Week holiday – alongside persistent, weather-driven, Far East port congestion and blanked sailings, are keeping container rates at year highs," Levine said.

For chemical shippers, the container market matters directly. Polymers such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) move in pellet form in boxes, as does titanium dioxide (TiO2), while liquid chemicals ship in isotanks.

Contracting dilemma for 2027

The spot picture puts shippers about to tender 2027 contract volumes in an uneasy position, according to Sand.

"While the contracted rates they aim for are a far cry from the currently red-hot spot market, they cannot fully dismiss the market conditions as something that will go away soon," Sand said. "They need to assess the disruptive elements individually, set them up against their transportation needs and consider what it means to them at a company level."

Tanker rates ex-US Gulf largely stable

In the liquid chemical tanker market, rates ex-US Gulf were mostly stable, with a slight increase on the low end of the USG-Brazil range for 2,000-tonne parcels and a rise on the high end of the USG-ARA range.

On the USG-Europe trade lane, activity picked up this week alongside steady contract volumes. The spot side remains somewhat active, with several traders inquiring about space. Caustic soda, methanol, glycols, base oil and styrene continue to dominate the lane. The number of fixtures remains somewhat limited, leaving rates pressured slightly higher.

The USG-Brazil market looks balanced. Spot space for smaller parcels appears available, and COA (contract of affreightment) volumes remain steady, supporting the market. Trading was quiet as most participants await the outcome of the war in the Middle East. A few styrene cargoes and a large methanol parcel were seen quoted. Rates are expected to remain relatively flat for now, as space seems available and offers appear to have disappeared.

USG-Asia rates were unchanged again this week, especially for larger parcels. Most owners are still waiting for contract nominations for the balance of the month and October, leaving partial space available — a trend that could push rates lower if it continues. The usual methanol parcels were fixed this week.

The outlier was USG-India, where rates increased as spot inquiries picked up and space tightened, prompting owners to push rates higher. Usual products continue to move on the route, though activity has noticeably decreased in certain products such as caustic soda.

With 15 blank sailings scheduled for next week and Golden Week beginning 1 October, the transpacific spot market's eight-week winning streak already shows signs of stalling — and both Xeneta and Drewry point to softer rates in early October.