Trans-Pacific container spot rates climbed to $11,523 per FEU on the Far East to US East Coast trade on 1 October, a 0.7% week-on-week gain that leaves the lane 334.7% above its 28 February pre-Hormuz baseline, according to Xeneta's weekly market update.

The Far East to US West Coast followed the same pattern, ticking up 1.4% to $8,346 per FEU — a 344.2% increase from the late-February floor. Both moves confirm, per Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand, that the trans-Pacific has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak for 2026.

"Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," Sand said.

Why have trans-Pacific rates stalled?

Two forces are now working against further upside. Port congestion in Asia is easing as typhoon season winds down, and China's Golden Week national holiday has thinned export volumes in the first week of October. With supply discipline intact but demand softening, the lane is sitting at a ceiling rather than building a floor.

What about Europe and the Mediterranean?

The European and Mediterranean trades peaked earlier and have been falling since the start of July, with declines extending into October:

• Far East to North Europe: $3,726/FEU, down 2.1% week-on-week
• Far East to Mediterranean: $4,105/FEU, down 4.6% week-on-week
• North Europe to US East Coast: $2,893/FEU, down 2.2% week-on-week

Even at current levels, those three lanes sit 67.9%, 23.3% and 95.9% above their respective 28 February baselines — elevated, but a fraction of the trans-Pacific surge.

How wide is the US East-West Coast gap?

The spread between Far East–US East Coast and Far East–US West Coast spot rates has quadrupled since the crisis began. On 28 February the two lanes traded within $772 per FEU of each other. By 1 October, US East Coast cargo commanded a $3,177/FEU premium. That gap, Sand said, will narrow as the broader correction sets in, driven mainly by a harder fall on the East Coast from its more elevated starting point.

What should shippers budget for through year-end?

Sand's three-month forward view puts Far East–US East Coast spot rates in a $6,000–7,000/FEU band and West Coast in a $4,500–5,500/FEU band. That would compress the East Coast premium versus West Coast to roughly $1,500 per FEU and trim the East Coast rate by close to 40% from current levels.

"Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," Sand said. "There will be nuances in the decline between the US trades however, with rates into US East Coast potentially falling harder than into the US West Coast."

What's the downside risk?

Sand's base case is a "sizeable correction, but not a collapse." The wild card is the same one that produced the surge in the first place: geopolitics.

"We can also not discount further major disruptions or geo-politic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again," he said.

For carriers, the arithmetic still works: even at the lower end of Sand's projected range, trans-Pacific spot rates would remain multiples above pre-crisis norms. For forwarders and BCOs exposed to spot, the forward message is clear — rates have peaked but will not collapse, so the next leg lower is not a return to February's $1,900/FEU floor.