Spot rates on the Far East–US east coast trade climbed to $11,259 per FEU on 17 September, leaving the benchmark just 11.2% below its January 2022 pandemic peak of $12,683 per forty-foot.

The Far East–US west coast trade tracked close behind, with the average spot rate reaching $7,960 per FEU — 17.9% below the February 2022 record of $9,699 per FEU.

Since 28 February, on the eve of the Hormuz crisis, spot rates to the US west and east coasts have surged 324% and 325% respectively, according to Xeneta data.

"That leaves freight rates on these critical trades just 18% and 11% short of the all-time high set during the Covid-19 disruption," said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. "With bunker prices pushing fuel surcharges higher, surpassing the pandemic peak cannot be ruled out, which would be an extraordinary market development."

Will carriers break the Covid record?

Sand pointed to the US east coast trade as the most likely candidate for a new all-time high. Even if the record holds, he argued, the discussion itself underscores how exposed container shipping remains to Middle East geopolitics.

"If a freight rate record is broken, it is most likely to occur on the trade into US East Coast," Sand said. "But even if we do not see a new all-time high, the fact we are even discussing the possibility demonstrates how sensitive critical ocean container shipping trades are to geopolitical forces and how a regional conflict in the Middle East can have major implications at a global level."

How much capacity are carriers adding?

Offered capacity on the Far East–US east coast trade is running 6–7% higher in September than in August, Xeneta said. The increase flows from carrier opportunism, not from softer demand.

"Carriers are seizing the opportunity while the market is hot, adding capacity into US East Coast ahead of what could be a turn in the market within the next two to three weeks," Sand said.

He expects one further rate push in early October as shippers bring forward cargo ahead of China's Golden Week shutdown.

"We should expect one more freight rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of the Golden Week shutdown, before rates start to soften, or at least the pace of growth will slow."

Is tighter utilisation the reason rates keep climbing?

Sea-Intelligence, in a separate analysis, attributed much of the carrier pricing power to sharper capacity management rather than raw tonnage constraints.

Eastbound transpacific vessel utilisation has stepped up from a typical 80–85% band in 2018–19 to 85–90% in recent years. 2026 levels sit roughly eight percentage points above the pre-pandemic baseline.

"The root cause of the increased utilisation appears to be a stronger discipline in capacity deployment by the carriers," Sea-Intelligence wrote. "This does not imply collusion across competitors, but indicates that carriers have become better at adjusting capacity on the trade, to match the rapidly shifting demand fluctuations."

What threatens the rate floor ahead?

The discipline that has lifted utilisation could erode as liner majors jostle for market share on the back of expanded orderbooks:

• Maersk: orderbook equals 35% of existing fleet after a 26-vessel order
• MSC: 39% of fleet
• CMA CGM: 39% of fleet
• Cosco: 52% of fleet

Shippers and forwarders should brace for one more general rate increase in early October, with Golden Week front-loading likely to keep spot benchmarks firm through the holiday window. Beyond that, the wall of new tonnage on order across the top four carriers raises the prospect of a sharper, capacity-led correction if demand cools or the Hormuz premium fades.