Asia-to-US container spot rates have likely reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak, with the trans-Pacific West Coast benchmark hitting $8,346 per forty-foot equivalent unit on Oct. 1, according to Xeneta.

Market-average spot rates ticked up 1.4% week over week on the West Coast and 0.7% to the East Coast, where shippers paid $11,523 per FEU. Both lanes now run more than four times their Feb. 28 pre-crisis levels, data from the Oslo-based freight benchmarking firm shows.

"We can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said.

What's driving the turn?

Easing port congestion across Asia as typhoon season winds down has helped reset capacity. China's Golden Week, running through the first week of October, is also throttling export volumes and pulling tonnage out of the spot market.

"Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," Sand said.

For US importers, that means budget planners cannot count on a return to the $2,000-per-FEU ocean rates that defined 2024 and early 2025. For ocean carriers, the arithmetic still supports the operating margins built during the post-crisis surge, even as the rally loses momentum.

How wide is the East Coast premium?

The spread between East and West Coast Asia-US rates has ballooned during the disruption. East Coast rates carried a $3,177-per-FEU premium over West Coast rates on Oct. 1, compared with a $772 premium before the Hormuz crisis.

That premium reflects heavier congestion on all-water routings via the Panama and Suez canals during the crisis, plus stronger import demand routed through East Coast gateways such as Savannah, New York/New Jersey and Norfolk.

Xeneta expects the gap to narrow as both lanes retreat. Looking three months out, Sand forecast East Coast spot rates in a $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU range and West Coast rates around $4,500 to $5,500 per FEU.

"That would be a sizable correction, but not a collapse," he said.

What about Europe and backhaul lanes?

The anticipated US-bound easing follows an earlier peak on Asia-Europe trades. Sand noted rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean topped out well before US-bound lanes and have been falling since the start of July.

Asia–North Europe spot rates fell 2.1% in the latest week to $3,726 per FEU, still 67.9% above their Feb. 28 baseline. Asia–Mediterranean rates dropped 4.6% to $4,105 per FEU, 23.3% above pre-crisis levels.

Transatlantic backhaul economics remain stretched. North Europe–US East Coast spot rates slipped 2.2% week over week to $2,893 per FEU, yet the lane still commands a 95.9% premium over its pre-crisis benchmark. Forwarders using the trade to reposition equipment continue to face elevated input costs.

What could derail the forecast?

Sand warned the outlook carries real downside risk from geopolitics and operational shocks that could reverse the current trajectory in either direction.

"We can also not discount further major disruptions or geopolitic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again," he said.

Shippers hedging 2027 contract negotiations should weigh locking in fixed-rate coverage on Asia–US lanes before any further softening materializes, while carriers will track how quickly Chinese export volumes recover after Golden Week and how reliably North Asian typhoon disruptions clear through October.