Trans-Pacific spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast climbed 1.4% to US$ 8,346 per FEU on October 1, marking what Xeneta says is the post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026. The move extends four consecutive months of gains since the original February 28 shock.

Far East to US East Coast rates added 0.7% to reach US$ 11,523 per FEU on the same date, according to Xeneta's market average. Both trans-Pacific trades remain 344% and 335% above their February 28 pre-crisis levels, respectively, with the East Coast absorbing the heavier cost burden from diverted routings and additional transit days.

What does "peak" actually mean for shippers?

Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, framed the top in cautious terms. "Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," he said.

Two forces are pushing the market off the peak, Sand noted: easing congestion in Asian load ports and the start of China's Golden Week holidays, which traditionally dampen export volumes for one to two weeks. Neither is enough to engineer a sharp reversal, in his view.

How have other lanes already moved?

Trans-Atlantic and Asia–Europe rates topped out earlier in the cycle. Spot rates from the Far East to North Europe peaked and have been declining since early July, with the October 1 average at US$ 3,726 per FEU. Far East to Mediterranean rates followed a similar path, currently at US$ 4,105 per FEU.

The Pacific and the Europe trades now sit on opposite sides of the same shock. Trans-Pacific is still adding incremental gains at the headline level. Asia–Europe is already correcting.

Why is the US East Coast so much more expensive?

The spread between the two US trades has widened sharply since the Hormuz disruption. The East Coast trade now runs US$ 3,177 per FEU above the West Coast, compared with roughly US$ 772 before the crisis. Carriers servicing USEC ports have absorbed longer routings, additional risk premia, and elevated inland costs.

Sand expects the gap to compress as the broader correction plays out, primarily because the East Coast's elevated starting point leaves more room to fall on a percentage basis.

Where are the rates heading into year-end?

Sand's three-month forward view: spot rates into the US East Coast in the US$ 6,000-7,000 per FEU range, with the West Coast landing around US$ 4,500-5,500. From the current base, that would represent roughly a 40% pullback on the East Coast and 35-45% on the West Coast.

"That would be a sizeable correction, but not a collapse," he said.

For comparison, the trans-Atlantic North Europe to US East Coast trade is already at US$ 2,893 per FEU, less than a quarter of the East Coast Pacific return.

What could derail the trajectory?

Sand warned that further major disruptions or geopolitical conflicts "could not be ruled out and could dramatically change the situation again." That caveat sits alongside his central call: a gradual, lane-by-lane descent rather than a market collapse.

For shippers with first-quarter 2027 contract talks approaching, the data argues against betting on a return to pre-crisis levels any time soon, even if spot rates ease materially from the current cycle high.