Spot rates from the Far East to the US East Coast climbed to USD 11,523 per FEU on 1 October, capping the post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026, Xeneta said.

The figure marked a 0.7% week-on-week gain and sat 335% above the 28 February pre-Hormuz baseline. West Coast imports from the Far East reached USD 8,346 per FEU, up 1.4% week-on-week and 344% over the same reference.

"Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," said Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst.

The turn came as port congestion in Asia eased alongside typhoon season winding down. Chinese Golden Week and other national holidays pulled export volumes lower in the first week of October, draining tightness from the system.

Why won't rates collapse?

Carriers and forwarders should expect elevated freight costs to linger through year-end, even with peak demand behind them.

"Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," Sand said.

His three-month outlook calls for spot rates into the US East Coast in the USD 6,000-7,000 per FEU range, with West Coast at USD 4,500-5,500. "That would be a sizeable correction, but not a collapse," he added.

How wide is the USEC-USWC gap?

The divergence between the two US trades widened sharply during the crisis. On 1 October, the spread stood at USD 3,177 per FEU, more than four times the USD 772 per FEU gap recorded on 28 February 2026.

Sand expects the gap to narrow into Q4, led by a steeper fall on the East Coast. "The spread will narrow as the broader decline takes hold in the remainder of the year, driven mainly by a harder fall into the US East Coast due to its more elevated starting point," he said.

Are Europe routes following the same path?

Euro-Med lanes peaked earlier and have rolled over. Far East to North Europe hit USD 3,726 per FEU, down 2.1% week-on-week, while Far East to Mediterranean reached USD 4,105 per FEU, off 4.6%. Both peaked at the start of July and continue sliding, with North Europe still 67.9% above the pre-Hormuz baseline and Mediterranean up 23.3%.

What are shippers watching into Q1 2027?

Trans-Pacific exposure for shippers will hinge on how quickly carriers manage capacity as Golden Week empties the booking pipeline. "We can also not discount further major disruptions or geo-politic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again," Sand warned.

Trans-Atlantic spot rates from North Europe to the US East Coast registered USD 2,893 per FEU, down 2.2% week-on-week, marking continued softening outside the crisis lanes. The trade sits 95.9% above pre-Hormuz levels, well below the trans-Pacific surge but elevated by historical standards.

For US-bound shippers, the practical takeaway is straightforward: expect a slow grind lower rather than a cliff, with East Coast imports leading the descent through early 2027 unless a fresh geopolitical shock resets the market.