Maersk's rates rose 46% in Q3 — on 0.8% fewer boxes

Maersk lifted its average loaded rate 46% year on year in July–September while carrying 0.8% fewer boxes — and still matched its rivals' margin gains, adding 9.9 points of EBITDA margin in its Ocean segment. That spread, steepest rate rise in the peer set, shrinking volume, tells you how the third quarter was won across container shipping: price did the work, not cargo.

The four carriers that publish comparable figures — CMA CGM, ONE, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd — lifted EBITDA margins by between 7.5 and 11.9 points in the quarter, on rate increases of between 28% and 46%. Every gain ran with the rate rise rather than with volume. Two of the four actually shipped less.

How the four carriers compared

The quarter's numbers break down like this:

• Maersk: rate up 46% — the steepest in the set — volume down 0.8%, Ocean EBITDA margin up 9.9 points.
• CMA CGM: volume up 5.5% (the most growth), unit revenue up 30%, EBITDA margin up 7.5 points — the smallest gain — but to the highest level in the group at 32.4%.
• Hapag-Lloyd: 0.5% fewer boxes, rate up 28%, EBITDA margin up 9.3 points.
• ONE: volume up 2.2%, rate up 36%, EBITDA margin up 11.9 points — the biggest gain.

What does this change for shippers? Mainly confirmation of who has pricing leverage. Maersk pushed through the largest rate increase while losing volume, and still kept pace on margin. Carriers with fuller networks could charge more without discounting to defend share.

The ranking held, the spreads widened

The pecking order didn't move. CMA CGM already led the EBITDA set in the same quarter a year ago, ahead of ONE, then Maersk, then Hapag-Lloyd, at 24.9%, 19.8%, 19.5% and 15.6% respectively. The same sequence holds now, just from a higher base.

On EBIT the story tightens around the Gemini partners. ONE led Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd a year ago at 6.3%, 6.2% and 4.1%. It still leads them now — at 21.6%, 20.6% and 15.7% — so the gap between ONE and the two Gemini carriers has narrowed on paper while the alliance's members diverge in practice.

COSCO sits above all of them. Its container-segment margin, on a comparable calculation, reached 28.8% — higher than any of the four publishers, though the Chinese carrier's reporting basis makes it an outsider to the like-for-like set.

Volume loss didn't cost the losers — yet

Here's the curious part. The two carriers that carried fewer boxes, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, still rank last on both EBITDA and EBIT. But the ranking was set before this quarter's volume split existed, so the volume losses haven't yet reordered the table. They haven't erased the deficit either.

That leaves the forward question hanging over Q4. Maersk traded volume for a 46% rate rise and broke even on relative position. If rates hold, that trade keeps paying. If they soften, the carriers that grew boxes — CMA CGM and ONE — hold the volume base to defend, and the two that shrank will be leaning entirely on price discipline to keep the margins this quarter delivered.