US Truckload Spot Rates Hit Highest Level Since July

The National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks dry van spot rate movement across the U.S., jumped to its highest level since July in early November — an unusually early climb ahead of the holiday season that the index rarely delivers this soon.

The move is more than 4% since late October. It came while diesel costs fell roughly 3.5% over the same period, which effectively rules out fuel as the driver of the jump. The NTI includes fuel in its calculation.

Fuel does influence rates with a lag, but diesel hasn't seen a sharp increase since early September, well beyond the typical lag of a few weeks. Elevated fuel costs may explain some of the year-over-year growth, and part of the longer-term divergence between spot and rejection rates this fall, but they don't account for this recent surge.

What's actually pushing rates up?

Carriers can't always pass along fuel costs unless the market will bear it — the same as any input cost, as many businesses learned trying to pass upstream inflation to customers. This latest jump appears driven by genuine market conditions, though the picture is nuanced: there has been no corresponding rise in tender rejection rates.

National dry van rejection rates have been trending lower since July, though still elevated. Anything above 10% signals insufficient capacity. The two metrics don't move one-to-one, even if they track each other over time. The key distinction: tender data represents the much larger contracted freight market, while spot is a fringe environment accounting for roughly 10% to 25% of truckload freight depending on the market.

The disconnect between contract and spot markets may stem from a surge of freight moving outside contracted agreements. On FreightWaves' Freightonomics podcast, Dr. Zac Rogers, co-author of the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI), said many retailers appear to have waited until the last minute to bring inventory into the country.

What does the October LMI show?

The reading backs him up. Inventory level growth in the October LMI hit 66.9 — the highest for that component since 2022. The last-minute surge reflected three forces:

• Demand uncertainty
• Rising inventory holding costs
• More streamlined supply chains

Demand uncertainty has defined 2026. Many retailers expected consumers to pull back on spending amid ongoing inflation. That happened in some areas more than others, but in aggregate it largely washed out.

Shippers face their own inflation, too. Inventory holding costs have climbed significantly, pushing them toward just-in-time ordering — a strategy they've used with great success. With holding costs this high, the extra expense of shipping later is easier to justify. Intermodal has benefited from elevated trucking and warehousing costs, growing by double digits over 2025 levels.

Dr. Rogers also noted supply chains have evolved since COVID into leaner, more flexible networks. That lets shippers move freight more precisely, cut transit times and delay orders without losing control.

How much is rail freight shifting back to truck?

Some of the spot surge may also be rail volume shifting back to the highway after disruptions hit BNSF and CSX in recent weeks. Domestic container volumes still haven't fully recovered and appear to be hitting a ceiling — unlike the previous two years, when they kept growing into December.

With the holidays approaching and the truckload market still not fully recovered, shippers know waiting until the week before Thanksgiving will be expensive. Some are trying to get ahead of the curve now, and the early NTI spike suggests more could follow as peak season tightens capacity through November.