Diesel slipped to $6.20 a gallon on Oct. 5, but the U.S. truckload market is still charging shippers a premium as carriers lock in fresh contract pricing this fall. The national average for on-highway diesel fell 18 cents week-over-week, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. The retracement offers only modest relief. Prices remain far above historical norms, and freight spot rates continue to outpace their longer-term seasonal averages.

How are truckload spot rates tracking?

For the week beginning Sept. 13, national spot rates ran 20% above their nine-year seasonal average for dry vans, 28% above for refrigerated trailers and 25% above for flatbeds, according to DAT data cited by Trucking Dive. The persistent premium shows carriers retained leverage even after the post-Labor Day surge.

On a week-over-week basis, dry van spot rates slipped 3 cents to $2.17 per mile. Refrigerated rates added 2 cents to reach $2.73. Flatbed rates slipped 2 cents nationally to $2.60, even as bellwether-state flatbed rates climbed 6 cents.

Loads posted on DAT One climbed 16% to 2.9 million during the week of Sept. 13, against an 8% rise in truck postings. The post-holiday load count outpaced capacity, with load-to-truck ratios ticking up across dry van, refrigerated and flatbed. Trailer orders offered another bullish signal: August net orders hit 24,144 units, up 43% from July, according to FTR data.

Why are older contracts bleeding carriers?

Cherri Harris, CEO and owner of Swint Logistics Group, said the diesel spike has hit her motor carrier's bottom line because many of her contracts were priced before fuel costs climbed. Harris told NewsNation on Sept. 27 that shippers have offered Swint a few extra hours of work each day to help offset the increase. That accommodation does not change the math, in her view.

"It is a help, but it is not a solution," Harris said.

Fuel surcharges typically reset weekly against the EIA's diesel print, according to Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations. A carrier that refuels after a sharp midweek jump must wait for the next adjustment to recover the cost, which means shippers see the increase only when the new surcharge lands on their freight bill.

How are states responding to the fuel squeeze?

Governors in two fuel-sensitive states moved to ease dyed-diesel restrictions. North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong declared an emergency Sept. 29, temporarily allowing vehicles tied to agricultural operations to use red-dyed diesel on public roads. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott took a similar step, lifting dyed-diesel limits for fuel normally reserved for agriculture and other off-highway uses.

Armstrong's order could save eligible users 19 cents a gallon in state taxes through Nov. 30. The federal diesel tax remains untouched.

What supply pressures sit beyond the truck stop?

The fuel problem runs deeper than the pump. Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner, speaking at a Wall Street Journal event Sept. 22, said energy prices are likely to stay elevated until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes more predictable and refining capacity returns. Refined-product exports from the Gulf have rebounded faster than analysts expected, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have tightened global fuel markets, prompting President Trump in September to publicly call on Kyiv to halt the strikes. The U.S. can release crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but that oil must still be refined before reaching diesel tanks. On Sept. 27, Washington offered to loan up to 40 million barrels from the SPR. Reuters noted routine drawdowns are restricted once stocks fall below 252.4 million barrels.

The White House is also weighing a ban on U.S. diesel exports. On Sept. 27, Trump said he was "thinking very seriously" about the idea. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told Yahoo Finance that a ban could lower domestic diesel prices while forcing Gulf Coast refiners to cut crude processing once storage fills, reducing output of gasoline and other fuels.

What should finance teams watch next?

Finance chiefs at shippers face a stack of decisions tied to the fuel cycle. At Wayfair, CFO Kate Gulliver told a CFO Leadership Council audience in June that finance and operations jointly review shipping costs and pricing through the company's CastleGate fulfillment platform. She also flagged freight auditing as an artificial-intelligence use case given transaction volumes.

Diesel and heating oil are closely related fuels, and the EIA expects low U.S. distillate inventories to push home heating costs higher in the Northeast this winter. Higher trucking bills will also flow into the cost of moving food, medicine and other essentials.

For shippers preparing to negotiate 2027 contracts, the October fuel print sets the floor for surcharge math. With national diesel still above $6 a gallon and Gulf export curbs under active review, contract renewals this fall are likely to lock in higher base rates and stricter fuel pass-through clauses than the terms shippers carried through 2025.