U.S. dry van spot volumes plunge 32.1% in August as rates hold firm

U.S. dry van spot volumes collapsed 32.1% month over month in August, even as truckload rates barely budged, according to the October 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition, produced with DAT Freight & Analytics.

The divergence between falling demand and stable headline pricing is the index's central finding. Contract volumes declined 13.5% over the same period. Yet dry van spot rates, inclusive of fuel, slipped only 3.4% — from $2.97 per mile in July to $2.87 in August. Contract rates rose from $3 to $3.09 per mile.

What does the fuel line tell carriers?

Behind the flat headline number, linehaul economics are deteriorating fast. The average fuel surcharge jumped 13% to 70 cents per mile in August, up from 62 cents in July. Strip fuel out and dry van spot linehaul rates fell nearly 8%, from $2.35 to $2.17 per mile.

"Stable rates do not necessarily mean stable transportation costs," said Jennifer Bullock, freight audit and analytics manager at CommScope. "Shippers need to separate fuel from linehaul to understand where pricing pressure is actually changing."

Contract linehaul moved the other way, ticking up to $2.39 per mile in August from $2.38. That widened the contract premium over spot freight to roughly 22 cents per mile — a signal that shippers still pay for committed capacity while spot absorbs the demand shock. Spot-heavy carriers are watching their effective rate per loaded mile erode even when published linehaul numbers look stable.

How much of this is capacity leaving the market?

U.S. Bank cited American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, who has argued the industry's recovery so far comes from carriers exiting rather than freight returning. The August DAT figures back that read: freight activity keeps weakening while pricing stays sticky.

For carriers, that distinction is becoming existential. Lower shipment counts and weaker spot linehaul revenue pressure equipment productivity and operating leverage. Utilization now matters more than the headline rate. Lane mix and deadhead ratios will drive margin more than negotiated rate cards in the months ahead.

Are shippers still in the driver's seat?

Weak volumes and low near-term risk of broad capacity disruption keep negotiating leverage with shippers. The data confirms it: contract rates rose even as spot volumes cratered, and the contract-spot gap widened.

Shippers also retain a favorable year-over-year comparison. August spot linehaul rates of $2.17 per mile were up 35.6% versus August 2025. Contract rates of $2.39 climbed 20.1% over the same period. Those gains, however, mostly reflect a depressed base rather than 2026 strength, and the August data suggests the premium is narrowing fast.

What does the data say about where rates go next?

U.S. Bank warned that the current volume-rate divergence cannot hold. "The market has not achieved a durable recovery," the report concluded, noting either freight demand will need to lift or rates will have to adjust further to reflect lower shipment activity.

Transportation analyst Erik Holck said the linehaul-versus-fuel split is the lens carriers should watch. "Separating a linehaul rate from fuel…allows everyone to focus on what they can actually control: execution, efficiency, and operational performance," he said.

Carriers running tight networks on contracted freight can still post stable top-line numbers, but spot-heavy operators face compounding pressure as both volume and per-mile linehaul revenue retreat. With shippers holding the leverage and capacity exits doing the heavy lifting on price, the next directional move depends on whether demand stabilizes — or whether another leg down in volumes pulls contract rates to follow spot lower, dragging the index's headline number with them.