The US truckload market entered the second half of 2025 with load-to-truck ratios cooling from roughly 2-to-1 in the first half to 1.3-to-1.5 in July and August, a shift Covenant Logistics Group CEO David Parker called healthier and more sustainable heading into peak season.

"This is not a bad environment and probably a healthy environment — more so than it was in the first 6 months. And so yeah, our customers are really excited about what they're expecting for peak season," Parker said in a FreightWaves studio interview.

How tight is the market?

Parker framed the moderation as a positive development for carriers. The 1.3-to-1.5 range, he argued, leaves the market tight enough to support rate increases without triggering a flood of new entrants. In the second quarter, most truckload carriers posted double-digit rate increases, yet industry-wide operating ratios improved only about 1 point because costs rose in parallel.

"We need another double-digit rate if this industry's gonna stay healthy," Parker said. He added that shippers now focus more on securing capacity than resisting rate increases, provided pricing remains fair.

How much capacity has left the market?

Parker reiterated that 2% to 3% of industry capacity has already exited, with more still leaving, and credited FMCSA enforcement for removing bad actors. He plans to travel to Washington, D.C., for an updated read on regulatory activity.

Looking further out, Parker forecast a 3-to-4-year supercycle anchored by domestic manufacturing investment and data center construction. Data centers, he said, will remain under development through at least 2032, with servers requiring replacement every 3 to 5 years.

What is Covenant's growth strategy?

Covenant's own playbook centers on exiting commoditized over-the-road freight. The carrier runs roughly 100 solo OTR trucks today and is steering capacity into specialized niches.

The clearest example is Lou Thompson, a live-haul chicken carrier Covenant acquired in 2023 with about 230 trucks. The unit has since grown to 800 trucks, hauling birds an average of 48 miles from farms to processing centers primarily in Arkansas, Delaware, South Carolina, and Georgia. Parker identified on-time delivery and weight preservation as the critical operating metrics.

Covenant's linehaul fleet now splits roughly 60% Freightliner and 40% Peterbilt.

Where is the next margin opportunity?

Parker named AI data centers as another high-value target and described a new partnership with a large international freight forwarder that operates 400 solo trucks but has no team-operations experience. Covenant is working inside the forwarder to match freight and maximize asset utilization.

For team operations to work, Parker said they must run in the mid-80s operating ratio. That threshold also requires trading trucks every 18 months because of high mileage accumulation.

Are electric trucks viable?

On electric vehicles, Parker said Covenant tested Tesla Semis in California with strong operational results but questioned the economics. Tesla's quoted price sits around $350,000 per unit against $160,000–$200,000 for a conventional truck.

"I have not found one customer willing to pay for that electric truck yet — not one, unless it's California," Parker said.

What's softening food and beverage freight?

Parker flagged structural headwinds in food and beverage, noting that some bakery customers are reporting volumes down 10%. He attributed part of the decline to GLP-1 weight-loss medications changing consumer purchasing patterns.

The combination of a moderating load-to-truck ratio, capacity attrition of 2% to 3%, and a forecast 3-to-4-year supercycle tied to data center and manufacturing capex sets up the second half of 2025 as a potential inflection point for US truckload pricing.