Global air cargo demand rose 8.5% year on year in June, according to the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), extending a run of monthly growth that has now defined the market for well over a year and keeping capacity planners, forwarders and shippers firmly in a seller-leaning freight environment.

The 8.5% expansion in cargo tonne-kilometres, reported by IATA in its June assessment of industry performance, confirms that airfreight demand has not merely held the gains booked since the recovery took hold, but continues to accelerate. For carriers, that means sustained pricing power on key trade lanes and fuller lower-deck and freighter payloads heading into the second half of the year. For shippers and forwarders, it means the era of cheap belly capacity and easy spot-rate negotiations remains firmly closed.

The June reading lands at a commercially sensitive moment. Peak season procurement talks between forwarders and carriers are typically locked in during the late summer months, and an 8.5% demand increase strengthens the hand of airlines selling committed capacity for the fourth quarter. Shippers who deferred contract decisions in the hope of softer summer markets now face the likelihood of firmer rate cards and tighter allotment terms, particularly on the transpacific and Asia-Europe corridors where e-commerce volumes continue to absorb a large share of available lift.

For cargo airlines and the freighter divisions of combination carriers, the growth rate validates fleet decisions taken during the recovery — freighter conversions, extended utilisation of older aircraft and, in several cases, dry-lease commitments placed when passenger belly supply was constrained. Airlines that held freighter capacity through the downturn are now monetising it.

The demand strength also carries implications for the container shipping and airfreight interplay. When ocean rates spike or port disruption strikes, cargo that can afford the modal shift moves to the air. Sustained air cargo growth of this magnitude suggests shippers are still paying for speed — whether driven by supply chain re-stocking, product launches, or the structural shift of e-commerce volumes from sea to air on the main east-west lanes.

Forwarders face a two-sided equation. Rising volumes lift gross profit pools on the buy-sell spread, but capacity scarcity on the sell side forces earlier commitments and larger position-taking with carriers. The 8.5% figure will sharpen that dynamic into the peak season: forwarders with locked allotments gain margin protection; those relying on the spot market carry the risk of rate spikes on their customers' business.

For airports and cargo terminal operators, the growth reading reinforces investment cases in cargo infrastructure — expanded cool-chain facilities, automated handling and freighter apron capacity — that were scaled back when the post-pandemic airfreight boom first showed signs of normalising. June's number argues that normalisation has not arrived, or at least that the market has settled at a structurally higher demand base than pre-crisis years.

IATA's June data completes a first half in which air cargo has outperformed most expectations. The industry body's monthly reports track cargo tonne-kilometres across member airlines, giving the reading broad coverage of the global market rather than a single carrier or region snapshot.

The test now is whether demand holds at this pace through the third quarter. If June's 8.5% growth carries into the July and August data, carriers will enter the fourth-quarter peak with full aircraft and firm pricing, and shippers should expect rate negotiations to stay on the carriers' side of the table.