Contract dry van rates ended August 22 cents a mile above spot freight, U.S. Bank reported Thursday, two months after spot briefly priced higher than contract for the first time in the cycle.

The figures come from the October edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition, produced with DAT Freight & Analytics. The quarterly report breaks out spot, contract and fuel costs per mile, and this edition covers June through August.

Spot linehaul fell to $2.17 a mile in August from $2.35 in July and $2.38 in June. Contract linehaul moved the other way, rising from $2.30 in June to $2.38 in July and $2.39 in August. The index shows contract gaining every month since April.

In June, spot ran 8 cents above contract. The report's authors wrote that the gap now opening in contract's favor suggests shippers continue to value committed capacity while transactional freight absorbs more of the market's weakness. For carriers holding dedicated freight, that divergence preserves revenue per mile even as the spot market sags; for shippers routing on the transactional market, August offered cheaper capacity — but a shrinking one.

The report also ties the gap to trucking supply: capacity continues to exit the market faster than freight demand is declining. American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said "the industry is seeing a recovery, but that is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market," according to an August column in Fleet Owner that the report cites.

Both rates remain well above last year. Spot linehaul in August was up 35.6% from August 2025, when it averaged $1.60 a mile, and contract was up 20.1% from $1.99. The index's previous edition showed spot up 31% year over year in May.

Fuel offsets part of the spot decline

The all-in picture looks different. Fuel surcharges rose to $0.70 a mile in August from $0.62 in July, a 13% increase, according to the index. With fuel included, spot rates fell just 3.4% to $2.87 a mile, while contract rose to $3.09 from $3.00.

"Fuel costs are increasing while linehaul pricing is softening, making it important for transportation teams to closely analyze the components of their freight spend," said Jeff Pape, head of transportation for U.S. Bank Corporate Payment Systems, in the release.

"Stable rates do not necessarily mean stable transportation costs," said Jennifer Bullock, freight audit and analytics manager at CommScope, in the report. "Shippers need to separate fuel from linehaul to understand where pricing pressure is actually changing."

"Fuel made up about 21% of the per-mile broker-to-shipper spot rate on dry van loads in June," said Patrick Pretorius, general manager of DAT's shipper segment. "By August, it was 24%, and diesel is trending higher into the fall."

FreightWaves reported last month that rising diesel costs could push more trucking capacity out of the market in the fourth quarter, as carrier operating margins remain below prior-cycle peaks.

"Higher fuel costs push smaller, thinner-margin carriers out of the market, which adds to an already shrinking driver pool," Pretorius said.

The arithmetic is unforgiving for marginal operators. A 13% jump in fuel surcharges against a falling spot linehaul compresses margins on exactly the loads small carriers rely on, while contract carriers pass fuel through separately.

Load counts slip in August

Volume moved lower in August as well. Spot loads in the index fell 3.2% to 1,264,897 from 1,306,819 in July, and contract loads fell 1.3% to 740,249 from 750,371.

The August declines followed sharper swings in May and June: spot loads fell 15.4% in May to 1,110,784, then rebounded 22.4% in June to 1,359,852.

Year over year, the divergence is stark. Contract loads were down 27.7% from 1,024,398 in August 2025, while spot loads were down a comparatively modest 5.7% from 1,341,626 over the same period — a shift in freight mix that favors brokered, transactional capacity even as committed pricing holds firmer.

"Shippers who've spent two years squeezing rate per mile would do well to shift focus to consolidation and network planning, as the market is tightening from two directions at once," Pretorius added.

With contract linehaul rising for five consecutive months, capacity exiting faster than demand is falling and diesel trending higher into the fall, the data points to a market where committed rates keep grinding upward even if spot stays soft through the fourth quarter.