Contract truckload rates climbed to $2.72 per mile plus fuel in the week ending Oct. 9 — a 52-week high and an 18% jump year over year, according to FreightWaves SONAR data.

The move signals that US shippers have stopped defending legacy pricing as annual contracts roll over. With spot rates tracked by the National Truckload Index up nearly 50% annually, the contract-spot gap is narrowing fast.

What does a $2.72 contract mean for shippers?

The benchmark resets the floor beneath everything else in truckload procurement. Carriers entering Q4 negotiations now have SONAR's blue-chip statistics on their side: contract rates at their highest in a year, spot rates climbing at roughly twice that pace, and tender rejections holding near 13.75%.

"Contract rates have reached a 52-week high at $2.72 per mile plus fuel — that's up 18% year over year, so we're absolutely seeing some of those contracts between carriers and shippers re-upping, reset at higher rate levels," Julie Van de Kamp, head of SONAR market intelligence, said during the Oct. 9 FreightWaves update.

That asymmetry changes the math for procurement teams. Annual bids handed in last fall at $2.30/mile or below now look like anchors dragging margin. Carriers sitting on rejected-tender ratios of 13% to 14% can walk away from any agreement that doesn't clear the new market-clearing line.

Is the spot market really 50% hotter?

Yes, by the NTI's measurement. The index has stacked up nearly fifty points of annual gain — one of the steepest spot moves SONAR has recorded outside a true freight recession recovery. Truckload demand rose roughly 1.25% week over week, returning to pre-Labor Day levels after a brief post-holiday pullback.

The combination matters more than either number alone:

• Tender reject index: 13.75%, inside the 13%–14% band of the past month
• Spot (NTI) year-over-year: roughly +50%
• Contract year-over-year: +18%
• Demand week-over-week: +1.25%

For shippers locked into single-carrier contracts at last year's rates, the answer is simple: those contracts are underwater. For those whose bids come due in Q1 2025, the SONAR tape suggests planning around $2.70-plus pricing on dry van long-haul lanes.

How is Tropical Storm Isaías hitting the Gulf?

The storm is concentrating disruption in two Alabama markets. Inbound truckload tender rejections into Mobile and Montgomery have spiked sharply over the past several days against a national average that remains range-bound, Van de Kamp noted.

That localized squeeze is doing what Gulf weather usually does — pulling spot rates off the national trend and adding a few cents per mile on lanes feeding the Florida Panhandle and the Alabama coast. FreightWaves' Weather Optics tool currently shows moderate-to-elevated disruption risk on the Business Impact Index, with road-closure and power-outage overlays available inside the module.

What does the new SONAR intermodal release change?

FreightWaves expanded its Rate Intelligence module on Oct. 9 to include intermodal benchmarks. Shippers and 3PLs can now compare van, reefer, flatbed, and intermodal in one view — the closest thing SONAR has shipped to a true mode-agnostic pricing terminal.

The release lets users pull available lanes, locate nearest rail ramps, and weigh intermodal pricing against van in both contract and spot formats. For a procurement team trying to decide whether to run 1,800 miles over the road or stack containers on BNSF or NS, the value is concrete: a side-by-side rate picture without a spreadsheet.

Van de Kamp called the expansion a direct response to shippers asking whether intermodal can replace van on specific lanes. With contract van rates at $2.72, the rail-and-truck math now changes for more lanes than it did twelve months ago.

What comes next for contract negotiations?

Bid season running into Q4 typically compresses timelines to 60 days. With carriers holding leverage and spot still gaining on contract, shippers should expect offered rates north of $2.70/mile plus fuel on dry van — and steeper increases on reefer and flatbed. If the NTI keeps tracking toward a 50% annual gain through year's end, even late-cycle bid renewals are likely to settle well above the rates sitting in most carriers' TMS today.