Dry Van Rejections Near 11% as Reefer Market Tightens Further

By Amara Osei

Dry van tender rejection rates sit near 11%, or roughly one in nine load tenders. Reefer rejection rates have climbed above their Labor Day and July 4 peaks.

FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland said dry van tender rejection rates have eased over the past few months but still signal a tight market. Shippers should not mistake that drift for meaningful relief as peak season approaches and capacity growth lags.

Is the truckload market finally loosening?

Not at 11%. Spot rates tracked by the National Truckload Index have stayed firm after pulling back slightly from their July 4 peak.

A four-day rate-direction map showed more lanes increasing than decreasing across most of the country. Strickland described that balance as evidence of the market’s continued fragility.

“Spot rates are really not ready to take on any more demand is the point of this map. The fact that we are in early November, we’re not seeing strong demand-side growth,” Strickland said.

Demand, however, is only part of the problem. Input-cost pressures, explicitly flagged in J.B. Hunt’s earnings, have outpaced revenue gains across most major carriers.

That squeeze has reduced the financial incentive for new owner-operators to enter. FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland said: “The costs have really outpaced the revenue growth gains. Doesn’t mean they’re losing money necessarily, but that doesn’t mean that we have the ample amount of cash flowing into the space that we had during COVID or even the 2018 market.”

More than 12 months of elevated dry van rejection rates have not produced meaningful capacity growth. The market has tightness, but not the cash inflows needed to relieve it.

Why are Los Angeles and Savannah diverging?

Los Angeles was the most pressured market: 67% of rates moved higher, with all of those increases on larger lanes. Its spot rates run roughly 15% above contract rates.

The looming West Coast port strike adds urgency. Los Angeles also sits close to heavy retail-focused demand corridors serving the Northeast, Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas.

Savannah tells the opposite story. The second-largest port complex on the Eastern Seaboard has seen rejection rates fall to nearly 6%, approaching the year’s second-lowest reading.

Savannah spot rates have dropped below contract rates, with roughly 7% of lanes declining significantly. Strickland called the divergence strange for this time of year, pointing to port activity concentrated on the West Coast.

For forwarders, that gap matters more than the national rejection rate. Savannah offers softer spot conditions; Los Angeles shippers face tighter truck capacity and higher rates. One national headline cannot describe both markets.

Why is reefer freight under more strain?

Reefer tender rejections have surpassed their Labor Day peak and eclipsed the prior July 4 summer high. Spot rates have held at elevated levels, leaving refrigerated freight tighter than dry van.

Harvest activity in Idaho and Oregon continues to tighten the Pacific Northwest. Twin Falls, Idaho, registered the most significant rate increases across the reefer network.

The Midwest offers no release valve. Strickland described it as arguably the tightest refrigerated region all year, with no signs of meaningful recovery.

Temperature-controlled shippers therefore face the sharper capacity constraint, not the modest easing visible in dry van rejection rates. Reefer capacity is where relief is hardest to find.

What do falling intermodal volumes mean?

Loaded domestic intermodal container volumes dipped in recent weeks after the country’s largest transcontinental volume lane was temporarily shut down. A parallel dip on the international side points to a broad market demand event rather than a mode-specific anomaly.

Strickland expects volumes to recover, so the dip does not remove the peak-season capacity problem. In practical terms, carriers need more cash and time to add trucks; shippers need to secure capacity earlier.

What does this change for shippers and forwarders?

The commercial read is constrained dry van and reefer capacity, not a broad freight slowdown. Los Angeles and Savannah require different spot-rate strategies, while the looming West Coast port strike could tighten the former further.

The near-term path points to firm dry van spot rates, slow capacity growth and continued reefer pressure, with the looming West Coast port strike adding further risk.