Tender rejection rate slips to 12.73% as freight cycle stays early

By Elena Vasquez

The outbound tender rejection rate had slipped to 12.73% at the end of October, even as tender volumes rose, leaving carriers and shippers with conflicting evidence about near-term freight demand. A falling rejection rate, in that setting, did not equal a broad market reversal.

FreightWaves expert Zach Strickland used more than two decades of freight data in a recent SONAR update to argue that the current freight cycle remained in its early stages. He paired the Cass Freight Shipments Index with the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks base truckload costs excluding fuel, and charted both from 2000 onward.

His review counted at least six distinct disruptions since 2016. Strickland described the current period as one of freight history’s most prolonged unusual stretches, warning that anyone positioning for a quick reversal would make a serious miscalculation.

How long could this cycle last?

“If you were expecting this cycle to be over in December, that would probably be the worst decision you could make because we are very early and most of these cycles last much longer than that period of time,” Strickland said. His warning placed current market expectations within a history of cycles that routinely outlast short-term forecasts.

Before that, freight activity in the early 2000s was comparatively muted. Strickland traced the roots of today’s market structure to 2004–2008, when diesel-price volatility accelerated the fuel surcharge, hurricanes disrupted supply chains, and the brokerage industry began taking its modern shape. That era became the foundation for the cycles that followed.

A steep freight recession followed in 2008–2009, which he called arguably the hardest period in freight history’s modern era. From 2010 through 2016, conditions settled into predictable seasonal volume rhythms and steady rate increases during each cycle.

That calmer interval no longer offers a reliable template. Rapid freight booms create conditions for equally sharp busts, making an extended and volatile cycle a more credible planning baseline than the smooth 2010–2016 pattern.

What does 12.73% actually signal?

The October tender rejection reading offered a modest sign of easing, but its meaning weakened when tender volumes rose at the same time. The Thanksgiving seasonal surge had also yet to appear in the data, leaving too little evidence to treat the rejection-rate slide as durable.

“The market’s not falling apart from a demand side perspective,” Strickland said. He also cautioned against assuming that the decline in rejections would retain its staying power.

For carriers, that reading supports keeping capacity plans flexible rather than treating one month of tender data as a structural turning point. For shippers, it favors lane-by-lane assessment rather than a broad conclusion that truckload demand has collapsed. Forwarders must reconcile rising tender volumes with fewer rejections before committing to spot purchases.

Refrigerated rates showed the clearest easing signal in the data. Elevated blue readings along the West Coast indicated falling rates, giving shippers potential leverage in reefer procurement even as broader cycle risk persisted.

Where is volatility concentrated?

Van-rate volatility was concentrated in the West, with rates most active across the Mountain Prairie region. El Paso, Tucson and Ontario saw notable swings, making regional rate direction more important than a single aggregate tender measure for dispatch and procurement teams.

The pattern differed by equipment and lane. Refrigerated rates showed elevated blue, indicating falling rates, along the West Coast, while the Weighted Rejection Index flagged dark-blue rejection readings centered on Ontario and Southern California.

Strickland highlighted Southern California as a forward-looking concern tied to an ongoing port strike. His advice was direct: shippers should watch the Los Angeles market closely as the strike continues.

For Southern California shippers, the two signals create separate exposures: truckload rejection volatility in the inland market and disruption risk around the port market. For carriers and forwarders, sustained swings raise the cost of forecasting lane turns, capacity needs and the timing of spot commitments.

How should shippers plan?

Strickland tied his structural argument to a macroeconomic benchmark: economists target 2% to 3% GDP growth as a stabilizing benchmark. Within that framework, rapid freight booms create conditions for equally sharp busts.

For carriers, brokers and shippers, the implication is to plan around extended volatility rather than the 2010–2016 pattern many treat as normal. Capacity, procurement and routing decisions therefore require frequent lane-level checks, with refrigerated-rate declines and elevated rejection readings concentrated in the West.

Going forward, post-Thanksgiving tender volumes, the durability of the 12.73% rejection rate, West Coast refrigerated pricing and the Southern California port strike will show whether volatility is easing. Until that evidence accumulates, the evidence supports a planning assumption of prolonged instability rather than a December-style market reset.