Maersk lifts 2026 guidance to $14bn EBITDA as rivals outpace it

Maersk has raised its full-year earnings guidance for the third time this year, lifting its underlying EBITDA forecast to $14bn–$14.5bn, up from the previous $10.5bn–$12.5bn range. The Copenhagen-based group also pushed its underlying operating profit outlook to $8bn–$8.5bn and now expects free cash flow above $3bn.

The upgrade caps a third quarter in which revenue climbed 27% year on year to $18.1bn and EBITDA surged from $2.7bn to $4.7bn. Operating profit more than doubled to $3.3bn. The ocean division did the heavy lifting: $2.6bn in operating profit against $567m a year earlier, as extraordinary freight rates more than offset marginally lower volumes.

"Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, global trade has remained remarkably resilient," said Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc.

What's driving the windfall?

Three forces stacked up in Maersk's favour.

• Resilient demand, including cargo growth tied to investments in electrification, energy and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Maersk's fleet ran at 96% utilisation.
• Typhoon-driven congestion across Asia pushed global average port waiting times to 16.6 hours — the highest since January 2023.
• Soaring spot rates: the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index averaged 46% higher in the third quarter than in the preceding three months.

That combination produced a cash machine. It did not, however, produce a clean beat.

Why did the market shrug?

Analysts at SEB noted the upgrade, while substantial, fell short of some buy-side expectations. Third-quarter EBITDA of $4.71bn came in below the bank's $5.56bn forecast and the $5.17bn consensus. The ocean division carried the shortfall.

Container shipping analyst Lars Jensen went further, pointing to Maersk's relative underperformance against peers:

• Ocean operating margin of 20.6%, versus 21.6% at Ocean Network Express and 28.8% at COSCO's container division including OOCL.
• Volumes down 0.8%, against growth of 4.5% at both ONE and COSCO.

So the market leader is earning record money while losing share and margin ground. That distinction matters for how long the windfall lasts once rates normalise.

How split is the east-west market?

Sharply. Alphaliner analysis shows the transpacific is generating roughly five times more spot revenue per nautical mile than the Asia-Europe trade routed via the Cape of Good Hope.

Freightos currently assesses Asia–US west coast rates at $8,340 per feu and east coast rates at $9,911 — levels that remain extraordinarily elevated by historical standards.

Asia-Europe has been calmer. Shanghai–Rotterdam edged up 1% to $3,686 per feu, and Shanghai–Genoa held unchanged at $4,151.

Are the first cracks showing?

Yes. Drewry's latest World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per feu, with the transpacific leading the slide:

• Shanghai–Los Angeles down 6% to $7,514
• Shanghai–New York down 5% to $9,631

Drewry expects further pressure on transpacific rates. US imports are forecast to decline 11% month on month in November. Carriers are responding with blank sailings, but the sheer volume of capacity deployed on the Pacific is becoming increasingly difficult to absorb.

For shippers, the practical question is simple: what does this change? In the near term, transpacific contract negotiations shift in buyers' favour if the November import drop lands as forecast. Forwarders face a widening spread between an inflated Pacific and a softening Europe trade, which rewards lane-by-lane routing decisions over blanket rate locks.

What about the orderbook overhang?

The longer-term picture is arguably more troubling. Splash reported last week that the containership orderbook has reached 15.12m teu — equivalent to 43.9% of the existing fleet.

At the same time, the accelerating return to Suez threatens to release substantial additional effective capacity without a single new ship hitting the water. Sea-Intelligence estimates that around 60% of deployed Asia-Europe capacity is already operating, or scheduled to operate, via Suez, with further normalisation expected during the first quarter of 2027.

That sets up a squeeze. Typhoon congestion and Cape routings have absorbed capacity and inflated rates; a Suez normalisation in early 2027, landing on top of a 43.9% orderbook-to-fleet ratio, points the rate cycle firmly downward — and Maersk's third guidance upgrade of the year may mark its last.