Maersk lifts 2026 EBITDA guidance to $14bn after congestion squeeze

A.P. Moller-Maersk has raised its full-year 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to US$14 billion–US$14.5 billion, up sharply from the previous US$10.5 billion–US$12.5 billion, after congestion-driven capacity tightness and a 46% quarter-on-quarter jump in spot freight rates powered third-quarter results.

The underlying EBIT outlook climbs to US$8 billion–US$8.5 billion, from US$4.5 billion–US$6.5 billion before. Group revenue rose 27% year-on-year to US$18.1 billion in Q3. EBITDA more than doubled to US$4.7 billion from US$2.7 billion, and EBIT reached US$3.3 billion against US$1.3 billion a year earlier, putting the EBIT margin at 18.1%.

Ocean did the heavy lifting. The division booked EBIT of US$2.6 billion, up from US$567 million in the same quarter last year, with vessel utilisation averaging 96% despite weather-related disruption across Asia. Severe typhoon activity snarled port operations, pushing average global port waiting times to a peak of 16.6 hours — the highest level since January 2023.

How congestion turned into rate power

The squeeze on effective vessel capacity translated directly into pricing. Average spot freight rates, as measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, rose 46% in Q3 versus the previous quarter, Maersk said. Global container demand grew an estimated 2%–4% year-on-year over the same period.

The rate strength came with a cost. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread network congestion pushed up bunker, network and container-handling expenses and undermined schedule reliability, the Danish group acknowledged.

For shippers, the message is blunt: Maersk says its fleet is running at full capacity, with demand exceeding available vessel space on certain trade routes. That tightness — not a demand boom alone — is what underpins the upgraded guidance, and it keeps upward pressure on contract negotiations while congestion persists.

Clerc: trade resilient, AI cargo adds flows

CEO Vincent Clerc framed the quarter as evidence that global trade is holding up despite geopolitical friction.

"We delivered a strong quarter across our businesses. Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, global trade has remained remarkably resilient," Clerc said. "Demand is being driven not only by consumer spending, but increasingly by major investments in electrification, energy and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, generating significant flows of industrial cargo around the world."

"We have been well positioned to capture this demand, with our vessel fleet operating at full capacity and demand exceeding available space on certain routes," he added.

Second upgrade in three months

This is the second raise in quick succession. An August revision followed stronger Q2 performance, particularly in Ocean, where EBIT reached US$935 million against a US$192 million loss in the first quarter. Average loaded freight rates grew 22% year-on-year in Q2 and volumes rose 4.1%.

Logistics and Terminals share the upside

Beyond Ocean, the earnings breadth matters for Maersk's integrator strategy:

• Logistics & Services revenue grew 13%, supported by volume gains across most product lines, higher rates and landbridge solutions in the Gulf region. EBIT margin improved to 5.8% from 5.5%.
• Terminals posted record revenue. Volumes rose 2.6%, with Africa up 14% and Europe up 6.7%. Utilisation eased to 85% from 90%, but the adjusted EBIT margin rose to 32.5% from 32%.

The Terminal margin expansion despite lower utilisation points to pricing power at the box level, not just throughput growth.

What happens next

Maersk's revised forecast assumes global container market growth of roughly 4% for 2026. The group is also continuing to execute its US$1 billion share buy-back programme, underlining boardroom confidence that the rate environment has legs.

With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, typhoon season disrupting Asian port operations and vessels sailing essentially full, capacity looks set to remain the tightest variable in the market heading into 2026 — and Maersk has positioned itself to keep cashing in on it.