Transpacific Spot Revenue Runs Five Times North Europe Per Mile

Transpacific carriers now earn five times more spot revenue per nautical mile on Shanghai–Los Angeles than on Asia–North Europe routings, new Alphaliner analysis shows, cementing the US trade as the most lucrative major container lane in the world.

The numbers are stark. At roughly $7,500 per feu, the 5,775-nautical-mile Shanghai–LA voyage generates $1.30 in revenue per container per nautical mile. Shanghai–Rotterdam manages just 26 cents via the Cape of Good Hope, or 34 cents via Suez. Shanghai–New York sits between the two at 96 cents per mile, with spot rates holding above $10,000 per feu since late August.

These are revenue figures, not profit. Still, they illustrate an extraordinary divergence between the industry's two principal east–west trades. The strength has persisted well beyond the traditional peak season, with freight rates approaching levels last seen during the pandemic.

How are carriers responding?

They're throwing tonnage at the Pacific. MSC recently upgraded its Sentosa service with 23,600-teu megamaxes, replacing vessels of around 15,000 teu. ZIM, which already deploys 52% of its capacity on the Pacific, will launch another China–California service in December.

The boom is flowing straight into earnings. COSCO reported third-quarter liner profits of $2.66bn, double the year-earlier level, with transpacific revenue surging 61.2%.

Are rates still holding?

Largely, yes. Freightos' latest assessment places Asia–US west coast rates at $8,340 per feu and east coast rates at $9,911. The transpacific's resilience has continued into November, according to the platform.

Freightos noted that rates remain approximately $5,500 per feu above pre-peak-season levels. The approaching Lunar New Year demand cycle could limit the extent of any correction, it added.

That cushion matters for shippers locked into near-term contracting. Any pullback from current levels still leaves spot pricing far above where it sat before the summer surge.

What could break the run?

Cooling signs are emerging. Drewry reported Shanghai–Los Angeles rates falling 6% to $7,514 last week, with Shanghai–New York declining 5% to $9,631. The consultancy expects further weakness, forecasting US ocean imports to decline 11% month-on-month in November.

Capacity is the other pressure point. Sea-Intelligence has warned that transpacific deployment is reaching unprecedented levels, with weekly Asia–US west coast capacity expected to hit 400,000 teu in November. Congestion and delayed departures are inflating those figures, the analyst cautioned.

For carriers, the arithmetic is double-edged. Today's record deployment sustains schedule coverage while rates hold. But if the forecast 11% import decline materialises, that same tonnage glut could accelerate the slide Drewry has already flagged — with Lunar New Year cargo the last reliable prop before the slack season.