Maersk lifts 2026 EBITDA guidance to US$14–14.5 billion

By Elena Vasquez

Maersk raised its full-year 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to US$14–14.5 billion from US$10.5–12.5 billion after ocean freight rates rose and supply chain disruptions limited available capacity. The Danish carrier reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of US$18.1 billion, up 27% from US$14.2 billion a year earlier.

What changed in Maersk's 2026 guidance?

Maersk also lifted its underlying EBIT forecast to US$8–8.5 billion from US$4.5–6.5 billion. It now expects free cash flow of more than US$3 billion, with the revised outlook assuming global container market volume growth of approximately 4%.

Third-quarter EBITDA reached US$4.7 billion, compared with US$2.7 billion in the year-earlier period. EBIT rose to US$3.3 billion from US$1.3 billion, while net profit climbed to approximately US$3 billion from US$1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

For carriers, the earnings step-up gives Maersk more room to fund vessel replacements and terminal projects while maintaining cash generation. For shippers, however, the improved guidance reflects higher transport costs rather than a broad recovery in cargo volumes.

Why did rates rise while container volumes fell?

Maersk Ocean, which accounted for most of the group's quarterly earnings improvement, lifted revenue 37% to US$12.6 billion. Ocean EBIT reached US$2.6 billion, compared with US$567 million a year earlier.

The average loaded freight rate increased approximately 46% year on year to US$3,287 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FFE). Loaded container volumes declined 0.8% to 3.37 million FFE, yet vessel utilization remained at 96%.

That combination defined the commercial terms for shippers: a 46% increase in the price of a 40-foot equivalent unit alongside slightly fewer boxes carried. Maersk Ocean captured more revenue per unit of capacity, and forwarders faced a tighter pricing environment for allocating space and quoting freight.

Capacity constraints across global shipping networks supported the rate increase. Severe typhoons in East Asia caused significant port congestion, while the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted cargo flows and increased operating costs.

Maersk said average global port waiting times reached 16.6 hours at their peak in August, the highest level since January 2023. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index rose 46% during the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, showing how quickly capacity conditions changed between quarters.

Longer queues translated into schedule uncertainty for shippers and additional cost for carriers. For forwarders, congestion also narrowed the practical options for moving urgent consignments, even where nominal vessel capacity existed.

Fuel added another cost layer. Maersk's average bunker price rose 49% year on year, while bunker consumption fell 6.3%, partly supported by the partial return to the Suez Canal.

Vincent Clerc, chief executive of Maersk, said: “Global trade remained resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty and continued supply chain disruptions.” He also highlighted “growing demand linked to electrification, energy investment and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.”

What did logistics and terminals contribute?

Maersk's Logistics & Services division generated US$4.5 billion of revenue, a 13% increase from a year earlier. EBIT rose to US$259 million from US$218 million, and the EBIT margin improved to 5.8% from 5.5%.

Growth was particularly strong in landside logistics, supported by landbridge operations across the Gulf region. Air freight, project logistics and contract logistics also contributed to higher revenue, broadening the group's services portfolio beyond ocean carriage.

The Terminals division recorded its highest quarterly revenue at US$1.52 billion. Terminal volumes grew 2.6%, with Africa up 14% and Europe up 6.7%.

Terminals EBIT fell to US$493 million from US$571 million, with the year-on-year comparison affected by an impairment reversal recognised in 2025. Excluding that effect, Terminals EBIT increased 6.5%.

Where is Maersk adding capacity?

Maersk ordered 26 dual-fuel containerships as part of its fleet renewal programme. Each vessel has a capacity of 18,600 TEU, with deliveries scheduled for 2029 and 2030.

In Bangladesh, APM Terminals began construction of the Laldia terminal in Chattogram during August. The project is expected to add 900,000 TEU of annual handling capacity.

APM Terminals Suape started commercial operations in Brazil in September, initially providing up to 400,000 TEU of annual capacity. Together, the two terminals point to an earlier expansion of handling options before the new ships arrive.

For the first nine months of 2026, Maersk generated revenue of US$46.8 billion, compared with US$40.7 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Maersk expects resilient container demand to support its upgraded financial outlook, while freight rates, fuel costs and geopolitical developments remain sources of uncertainty for future capacity and pricing.