Containership orderbook passes 15m teu and closes on 16m

The global containership orderbook has passed 15m teu, and Alphaliner figures show roughly 40 more large newbuildings from Maersk, Yang Ming, CMA CGM and MSC are set to push the total towards 16m teu before the end of the year.

Contracted capacity stood at 15.12m teu in Alphaliner's October Monthly Monitor — equivalent to 43.9% of the trading fleet. The analyst projects fleet capacity expanding 9.2% in 2027 and a further 14.4% in 2028.

Maersk's orders are expected shortly. CMA CGM and MSC contracts are believed signed but unconfirmed by Alphaliner.

Is Maersk going megamax?

The headline deal is Maersk's return to the largest containership segment. Alphaliner reports the Danish carrier is negotiating exclusively with Chinese yards for twelve LNG dual-fuel vessels of 24,000 teu, with options for another twelve.

At an estimated $240m apiece, the initial programme is worth roughly $2.88bn — rising to $5.76bn if all options are exercised. It would be Maersk's first entry into the 24,000 teu category, moving beyond the twin-engine Triple-E designs it introduced more than a decade ago. Chinese yards win on cost and available construction slots.

What does the supply wave mean for the market?

The timing is awkward. Sea-Intelligence reported this week that around 60% of deployed Asia-Europe capacity now operates, or is scheduled to operate, via Suez rather than around the Cape of Good Hope. Assuming security conditions hold, the consultancy expects further normalisation during the first quarter of 2027.

Shorter voyages release effective vessel capacity into a market already absorbing accelerating physical deliveries. Braemar warned in its latest container briefing that returning Suez services plus the expanding orderbook were "not an ideal combination for charter rates".

Jefferies sounds a similar note for 2027, warning newbuilding deliveries could push fleet growth ahead of cargo demand.

Why are charter rates still climbing?

Today's market tells a different story. Only 0.8% of the global cellular fleet was commercially idle in Alphaliner's latest survey, and charter rates have reached their highest levels in four years. Prompt tonnage is scarce, with some large units reportedly earning six figures per day.

Geopolitical disruption and tight availability keep earnings exceptional — for now. But Alphaliner cautioned the coming delivery avalanche "will eventually take its toll on the market".

Which fuel is winning the orderbook?

LNG is dominating. Dual-fuel LNG ships now account for 56% of contracted capacity, against 12% for methanol dual-fuel and just under 32% for conventional propulsion.

Alphaliner recorded 2.3m teu of fresh LNG dual-fuel orders during 2026, with the anticipated megamax contracts potentially adding another 1m teu. Methanol ordering has almost stalled.

For shipowners, the bet is that Suez normalisation in early 2027 collides with the 2027-28 delivery peak — and for charterers, that today's six-figure spot rates hold until they don't.