Typhoon Champi props up freight rates; 1 November GRI 'doomed'

Typhoon Champi and jammed Asian ports are holding container spot rates up, but Linerlytica says carriers' planned 1 November general rate increase is "effectively doomed." The strongest storm of 2026 made landfall in Taiwan on Saturday and is doing what storms do: delaying ships, in this case by up to three days, and adding to congestion in North Asia — a region already accounting for 35% of global port logjams.

Taiwan's main gateways shut ahead of the typhoon. Kaohsiung, Taipei and Keelung closed last Friday and reopened over the weekend. The disruption was brief, but its timing matters.

What's actually supporting spot rates?

Two forces, neither of them demand. Ports across Southeast and South Asia remain under pressure from vessel bunching, and the situation is compounded by the return of some services through the Suez Canal. Ships resuming the shorter route now converge with vessels still sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.

"These disruptions are temporarily absorbing effective capacity and offering some support to spot rates," Linerlytica noted in today's report.

The reprieve is just that — temporary. Excess capacity, aggressive price competition and the onset of the winter slack season continue to weigh on the market. Transpacific container freight rates are likely to stay higher than Asia-Europe levels for some time, supported by strong US import demand through to the new year. Beyond that, the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, and carriers are struggling to sustain pricing.

How bad is the undercutting?

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, published last Friday, showed Shanghai–North Europe rates essentially flat week on week at $3,557 per feu. Linerlytica's read of the market was less rosy than the index.

Gemini Cooperation partners Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are quoting some of the lowest spots for early November loading: $3,000–$3,200 per feu for Hapag-Lloyd and $3,200–$3,400 per feu for Maersk. MSC, Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance carriers have answered with offers around $3,400–$3,500 per feu. That's roughly $400–$500 per feu of daylight between the index print and the cheapest working offer on the street.

The pattern tells its own story: carriers are prioritising cargo volumes over price discipline. "Carriers' plans for a GRI on 1 November are effectively doomed as the winter slack season kicks in, with the largest shipping lines undercutting each other," Linerlytica said.

For shippers, that means early-November sailings are a buyer's market. For forwarders, it means the index is a lagging indicator and the phone quote is the real one. For carriers, it means blank sailings aren't doing the job — capacity discipline has effectively collapsed into a volume grab.

Can capacity retreat save rates?

No sign of it. Carriers are maintaining full capacity deployments through November, with average weekly capacity from the Far East to North Europe expected to hit a record level. Record supply chasing slackening demand is not a recipe for firmer rates.

Suez transits compound the flood. Half of the Asia–North Europe sailings that were routed around the Cape of Good Hope after the Houthi attacks have already returned to the Suez, shortening round voyages and effectively adding ships to the water. A full reversion is expected in early 2027, meaning capacity will likely stay elevated well into next year.

So what does this change for shippers? Practically, a window. Early-November Far East–North Europe cargo can be booked well below the SCFI print, and the 1 November GRI looks safe to ignore. The transpacific holds up a touch longer on US import demand.

The direction of travel, though, is one way. Typhoons pass, congestion clears and the record capacity stays — expect softening Asia-Europe spot rates into the winter season, with the Suez reversion tightening the screw further through 2027.