Brent rises 0.6% to $93.32 as Trump rejects Iran deal

Brent crude rose 0.6% to $93.32 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the United States does not need an Iran deal, trimming an initial surge as prospects faded for a breakthrough in the Middle East war.

The global benchmark has gained more than 50% this year but has fallen sharply this month, a reversal driven by recovering Middle East flows and speculation that Democrats’ victory in U.S. midterm elections could hasten the conflict’s end.

Trump wrote on Truth Social: “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, hundreds of billions of dollars, and we’ve got their strait!”

For shippers, carriers and forwarders, the statement turns diplomacy into a route-access variable: prolonged stalemate leaves Gulf exports dependent on military protection and workarounds, while any escalation could reduce reliable cargo availability.

Any resulting reduction in crude or product loadings would tighten supply and support prices; continued flows would do the opposite.

What changed in Washington’s Iran strategy?

Trump’s position marks a clear shift from recent U.S. efforts to pursue diplomatic resolution. Iran has also maintained a hard line: Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaee said in an Al Mayadeen interview that the country would not remove “a single atom” of enriched nuclear material.

Washington and Tehran still disagree over Iran’s nuclear program, frozen assets and the U.S. naval blockade. Their unresolved differences leave no announced negotiating path after Trump’s rejection of a deal.

What is happening to tanker flows?

Two supertankers loaded with oil were halted by explosions while using the “unauthorized” route through the Strait of Hormuz on the night of Nov. 11, Iran said, citing the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

The incident adds a physical disruption to the policy risk. It also raises the operational stakes for tanker operators and freight forwarders deciding how much Gulf-origin cargo can move without encountering an interrupted passage.

Earlier on Nov. 12, crude prices fell as signs of continued resilience in Persian Gulf exports took hold, led by Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh told OPEC that its production soared 26% in October, reaching one of the highest monthly levels in years, according to an OPEC report issued Nov. 11. Iraq also said it had raised output to a new wartime high.

For energy shippers, the Saudi and Iraqi increases are the immediate volume cushion, while the tanker stoppage shows how quickly that cushion can be disrupted in transit.

How are exporters bypassing Hormuz?

Regional exports still depend on two workarounds that reroute or transfer oil outside normal Hormuz passages:

• Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline carries exports to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
• The so-called shuttle trade uses ship-to-ship transfers to move oil between vessels.

These routes support continued regional exports, but they do not remove dependence on U.S. security. “The higher oil flows out of the Middle East have been made possible by U.S. military support, including naval escorts intended to protect tankers,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG, said after Trump’s comments on Nov. 12.

He added: “As a result, they depend partly on how long the U.S. is willing to provide this service, which is also likely to entail substantial costs.”

For carriers and forwarders, that creates two linked exposures: reliance on workaround infrastructure and ship-to-ship transfers, plus the risk that protection becomes harder or more expensive to sustain.

What does the policy split mean for prices?

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, framed two outcomes. “If talks are off, it could mean status quo remains and Brent drifts lower as more oil comes out the gulf,” he said. “Alternatively, it means the risk of Iran escalating has gone up. I think the market will buy into the second option.”

The result is an asymmetric freight and fuel-price setup. Under the status quo, sustained Saudi, Iraqi and broader Gulf exports would add barrels and favor softer crude; tanker incidents or a failure of escorts would tighten availability and favor higher prices.

Why is diesel supply tightening in Europe?

Europe faces a separate diesel constraint as Ukrainian drone attacks again hit Russian refineries. The disruption has compounded a diesel squeeze caused by the Iran war because Russia has been forced to stop exporting fuel.

Ukraine said it had attacked Russia’s largest oil refinery deep in western Siberia for a third time, without providing details of damage to the Omsk refinery.

For European shippers, trucking fleets and freight forwarders, refinery outages combined with stopped Russian exports reduce local fuel availability. For ocean carriers, a tighter diesel market raises the cost exposure of vessel bunkering even if crude prices ease.

That leaves diesel, not only crude, as a freight-cost variable for shippers moving through Europe.

The next pricing signals will come from tanker passage through Hormuz, the durability of Saudi and Iraqi exports, the U.S. escort commitment and any confirmed damage at Omsk. Continued flows and working protection would favor softer crude; renewed stoppages or refinery outages would push supply and fuel costs higher.

Until one side changes course, the trajectory remains two-sided: more Gulf barrels under the status quo, or tighter crude and diesel supply if Iran escalates.