Brent Above $100 as Vance Blames Iran War for GOP Midterm Loss

Brent crude has held above $100 a barrel for months as Iran continues to attack merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice President JD Vance now says that war — launched by his own administration — cost Republicans control of Congress.

"The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night," Vance wrote on X on Wednesday, one day after Democrats won both the House and the Senate. President Donald Trump conceded the point in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, while defending the decision itself: "I did the right thing. I would have done it again."

For shippers, carriers and underwriters, the political reckoning in Washington arrives while the operational threat in Hormuz remains unresolved.

What is still happening in the Strait of Hormuz?

The war, launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, has kept the strait at the center of a prolonged military and economic standoff. The United States maintains a blockade targeting Iranian maritime commerce. Iran, in turn, keeps attacking commercial vessels in the strait and the Persian Gulf.

Tanker traffic has recovered considerably from the early months of the conflict, according to the source. The recovery, however, is fragile. Several new maritime incidents were reported over the past weekend, including attacks on tankers and other commercial vessels. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued additional warnings this week, underscoring that U.S. efforts to secure the waterway have not eliminated the danger to merchant shipping.

The commercial consequences are already priced in. The disruption has driven up tanker rates, war-risk insurance costs, and global energy prices. Brent crude has remained above $100 a barrel, while higher gasoline and diesel prices have fed cost-of-living pressure inside the United States — a pressure voters registered at the ballot box.

Why does the election result matter for shipping?

Vance argued the midterm results reflected frustration with the war itself, not merely a turnout failure. He cited internal polling identifying four voter concerns: ending the Iran war, inflation and the cost of living, putting America first, and the U.S. relationship with Israel.

The remarks carry weight because they come from the vice president of the administration that launched the war in February and spent much of the year defending it. As recently as September, Vance resisted calling the conflict a war at all. "I wouldn't call it a war," he told reporters at a White House briefing, insisting major combat operations had ended. Attacks on merchant vessels since then suggest otherwise.

Vance also drew a hard line on diplomacy: Washington will not return to negotiations with Tehran until Iran stops attacking commercial shipping through the strait. That condition places merchant-shipping security directly at the center of any prospective de-escalation — and leaves carriers exposed in the meantime.

What changes when Congress changes hands?

With Democrats taking control of Congress in January, the administration faces greater scrutiny of its military strategy, the blockade of Iranian shipping, and the war's economic costs. Congress controls defense spending and could pursue legislation limiting military operations. The check is not absolute: Trump retains substantial executive authority and the ability to veto such legislation.

For the shipping industry, the immediate questions are unchanged. Will Washington continue its current approach, resume major combat operations, or reach an agreement with Tehran that reduces the threat to commercial vessels? None of those paths is guaranteed, and each carries different implications for tanker utilization, war-risk premiums and energy freight rates.

The White House is weighing those options now — with its own vice president publicly blaming the war for the loss of Congress, and with Hormuz still too dangerous for UKMTO to stop issuing warnings.