Front-month ICE Brent is set to close the week up roughly 1%, trading back above $100/bbl after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with "annihilation" in his United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) speech on Tuesday. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that Tehran would never "bend the knee," pointing to a prolonged Middle East standoff that is reshaping fuel bills for container lines, bulk carriers and tanker operators worldwide.

What is driving oil prices higher?

Brent's push through $100 came alongside stalled US-Iran diplomacy at UNGA and the passage last week of a bill extending the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 through 2031. The legislation gives the US President authority to sanction entities doing business with Iran's energy sector. ING Bank analysts noted that oil prices remain more than 60% higher year-to-date as disruption in the Middle East continues to strain the global oil market.

On the supply side, US commercial crude stocks rose by around 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week to 18 September, according to the US Energy Information Administration. French President Emmanuel Macron said G7 leaders are expected to discuss another release from emergency oil stocks in the coming weeks. Any stockpile release would land against a backdrop where bunker buyers are already locking in tonnage with 10–12 day lead times at key hubs.

Where is bunker demand strongest?

Gibraltar recorded 476 bunker calls in August, up 6% from 449 in the same month last year, according to the Gibraltar Port Authority. Calls through 31 August reached 3,809, an 11% increase year-on-year. Every month of 2026 except January has exceeded the five-year monthly average of 453, with August itself running above the mark.

Cruise traffic is helping. Gibraltar received 144 cruise ship calls in the first eight months, up from 125 a year earlier. Prompt bunker availability in the Gibraltar Strait remains tight, however, with around eight vessels awaiting supply on Wednesday, according to port agent MH Bland.

How is Petrobras rebuilding southern Brazil supply?

Brazilian state-owned Petrobras restarted bunker operations at the Rio Grande Terminal this week after a tropical storm packing winds above 100 km/h knocked out power on Monday. Loading resumed once electricity returned and inspections cleared. VLSFO and LSMGO supply had been tight before the storm; Rio Grande also hosts Petrobras's B24-VLSFO blending and loading. In January, Petrobras agreed to supply up to 12,000 mt of B24-VLSFO this year to Norwegian chemical tanker owner Odfjell via dedicated barges at the terminal.

What does the ZEMBA expansion mean for shippers?

Microsoft, Google and logistics firm DSV have joined the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), which pools cargo-owner demand and tenders for shipping services running on low- and zero-emission fuels. Hapag-Lloyd used liquefied biomethane in ZEMBA's inaugural tender and, alongside North Sea Container Line (NCL), won ZEMBA's subsequent e-fuel tender for 2027 in December 2025.

Hapag-Lloyd plans to deploy e-methanol on one transoceanic trade lane, while NCL will use green ammonia on a northern European route. Together the carriers are expected to cut around 120,000 mt of greenhouse gas emissions over three years from 2027. ZEMBA members will pay a premium for the reductions, allocated to cargo owners through a book-and-claim mechanism.

What's next for dual-fuel tonnage?

Norwegian car-carrier operator Höegh Autoliners has ordered six additional LNG dual-fuel pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) from China Merchants Heavy Industry in Jiangsu, for delivery between 2029 and 2031. The order lifts its dual-fuel PCTC fleet to 18 vessels, including eight LNG-capable ships in operation or on order and four ammonia-ready PCTCs due by 2027. Options for four more vessels and reserved yard capacity for another four could push the fleet toward 26 units.

Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) took delivery of the 93,000-cbm LPG dual-fuel VLAC Lilac Cove from China's Jiangnan Shipyard. The vessel can carry both ammonia and LPG and is the second of six VLACs on order, following the Ivy Cove delivered in June. Class society DNV put the global LPG-capable fleet at 179 vessels, with another 160 due for delivery by 2030.

How big is the shore-power gap?

Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) reported that 193 cruise ships across its 45 member lines can now use shore power, more than triple the 55 vessels equipped in 2018. Another 47 vessels are slated for retrofits and 39 newbuilds on order are expected to arrive shore-power capable, potentially taking the total to 279 by 2039. Port infrastructure is not keeping pace: only 40 ports worldwide offer at least one cruise shore-power connection — less than 3% of ports visited by cruise ships. CLIA called the figures evidence of the industry's "continued investment in ship-side readiness," but warned that achieving the full emissions-reduction potential depends on "continued investment in compatible port and energy infrastructure."

With Brent holding above $100 and G7 stockpile releases still under discussion, bunker buyers face elevated, volatile fuel costs into the fourth quarter while alternative-fuel tonnage expansion and ZEMBA-style demand pooling accelerate in parallel.