Gulf markets rise, but Hormuz attacks keep freight risk elevated

By Marcus Bennett

Saudi Arabia’s TASI rose 0.9% to 10,107 on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that fresh strikes on Iran were unlikely if talks continued.

Gulf bourses closed mostly higher after an eight-month conflict, although U.S. military reports and Iranian state media said shipping had been attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, the waterway carried nearly one-fifth of the world’s crude.

What changed in Washington and Tehran?

Trump had earlier hinted at renewed attacks after the previous week’s midterm elections. No large-scale U.S. military operation followed, and Tehran warned that it would hit U.S. and Israeli targets in response to any such move.

For shippers, carriers and forwarders, the immediate commercial consequence is continued exposure to attack risk near a route that carried nearly one-fifth of the world’s crude before the war. The source names no carriers or ports and provides no freight rates, capacity percentages, TEU movements, cargo tonnage or sailing changes, so it cannot establish a different cost, schedule or space outcome.

Trump’s signal and the absence of a large-scale operation support an easing of immediate strike anxiety, not a durable resolution.

How did regional equities close?

• Saudi Arabia: TASI rose 0.9% to 10,107. Al Rajhi Bank gained 1.9%, while Perfect Presentation For Commercial Services surged 4.3% after its quarterly profit rose.
• Dubai: The DFM index gained 1% to 6,087, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties advancing 2.4%.
• Abu Dhabi: The FTADGI index climbed 1% to 9,483.
• Qatar: The QSI gained 0.9% to 10,108, led by a 1.5% rise in Qatari lender Qatar National Bank, described as the Gulf’s biggest lender.
• Egypt: The EGX30 advanced 1.2% to 51,415, while Telecom Egypt closed 3.3% higher.
• Bahrain: The BAX finished flat at 1,822.
• Oman: The MSX30 eased 0.4% to 7,234.
• Kuwait: The BKP added 0.2% to 8,967.

Saudi authorities lifted an alert in Riyadh on Monday, a day after a Houthi attack damaged an Aramco office building in the city.

What are investors and officials saying?

Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, said: “Shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains a drag, but resilient regional economic data is keeping investors buying.” His assessment captures Monday’s split: financial resilience supported buying, while transport security remained unresolved.

Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati official, said a comprehensive political deal between Washington and Tehran looked hard to achieve. Speaking at a geopolitical conference in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates capital, he said: “We should ... prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted.”

He offered no timetable, vessel measure or commercial remedy. The statement therefore reinforces policy uncertainty without quantifying the freight effect.

What does Egypt’s gas cut mean for fertilizer supply?

Egypt has notified fertilizer producers of a further 33% cut to gas supplies, according to a statement from Abu Qir Fertilizers and industry officials. The move reflects Cairo’s push to reduce reliance on costly LNG imports.

Gas serves as both raw material and fuel for fertilizer production, so the cut hits producers on two operating fronts. For shippers, that creates uncertainty over output and cargo availability, but the report gives no gas volume, production tonnage or dispatch schedule with which to quantify it.

Abu Qir Fertilizers fell 2.7% and Misr Fertilizers Production slid 2.6%, extending losses from the previous session.

What should freight operators watch next?

The next signal is whether talks prevent further strikes and whether reported attacks near Hormuz recede. Continued dialogue without a large-scale operation could ease the shipping overhang identified by Sky Links, while renewed attacks would keep freight exposure elevated.

The next test is policy: continued talks could ease the stated Hormuz disruption risk, while another escalation would challenge Monday’s regional gains; no freight-rate or capacity path can be inferred from the equity moves.