Shippers locked in 60% of new air cargo capacity contracts for three months or less in the third quarter, up from 25% a year earlier and 47% in Q2, according to Xeneta's latest quarterly analysis.

The shift is the clearest signal yet that buyers are unwilling to take year-long price risk. Three-month deals alone accounted for 42% of new agreements, versus 16% in Q3 2025, while 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25%. Deals longer than 12 months have all but disappeared at 3%.

What is driving the contract shake-up?

Demand keeps running ahead of capacity. Global airfreight volumes rose 6% year-on-year in September, matching August and outpacing July's 5%. Belly and freighter capacity expanded only 2% after flatlining in July and August.

That four-point gap pushed Xeneta's dynamic load factor up two points to 62% and kept spot rates firm. Global air cargo spot rates averaged 27% above September 2025 and edged 2% higher month-on-month. Jet fuel costs, roughly double pre-conflict levels on Middle East tensions, added pressure to that floor.

What pricing structure do shippers want?

Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw described buyers as seeking "floating mechanisms," with base rates adjusted to live market moves rather than fixed annual prices. His preferred reference is the all-in rate airlines charge forwarders, which he argued beats a "blunt fuel surcharge."

"A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule," van de Wouw said. "If they do exist, not many will survive the upcoming 12 months."

He added there is "a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market," with instability making long-term fixed deals impossible without adjustment terms.

How are corridors diverging?

Tight conditions are not uniform. Lane-by-lane September moves showed:

• Northeast Asia to Europe: +5% to $4.74/kg
• Northeast Asia to North America: +5% to $6.03/kg
• Southeast Asia to Europe: +3%
• China to Western Europe: +10% month-on-month to $4.26/kg, reversing a 22% July fall
• Transatlantic: Europe–North America +2%, North America–Europe +4%

Only two corridors softened:

• North America to Southeast Asia: -1%
• Europe to Southeast Asia: -2%

What is happening on e-commerce lanes?

The EU's 1 July removal of the €3 de minimis exemption continues to bite China-origin e-commerce. China-to-Europe low-value and e-commerce exports fell 40% year-on-year in August, a steeper drop than July's 25%.

The picture looks different across the Pacific. China-to-US e-commerce exports rose 17% year-on-year in August, continuing the rebound from the 2025 elimination of the US de minimis threshold. That divergence is widening the air spot rate gap between the two corridors.

What does the peak season look like?

Xeneta tracks 2026 toward roughly 4% annual demand growth, a figure van de Wouw said exceeds most forecasts at the start of the year. The Q4 setup, however, looks muted.

"October is under way and we are not picking up signals of a strong peak season from our shipper and forwarder community," van de Wouw said. The indicators, he added, point to a quiet final quarter in line with Xeneta's mid-year outlook.

Where is the next air-shift catalyst?

Van de Wouw flagged ocean reliability as the single wildcard he watches most closely. Red Sea disruption, port congestion and Asia–US West Coast ocean rates pushing back toward pandemic-era highs could push some volume to air.

"We're not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn't change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely," he said.

Middle East spot rates remain the most elevated versus late February: South Asia into the region up 91%, Europe up 80% in week 39 (21–27 September). Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America still sit 34% and 29% above pre-escalation levels, supported by e-commerce and AI-related shipments.

Europe to North America, the outlier, remains 20% below late February, though that gap has narrowed from a 25% deficit in August.

Traders should expect more of the same into year-end: rising month-on-month spot rates, a 62% load factor, and shippers demanding floating terms their forwarders can actually honour.