Global airfreight spot rates averaged US$3.10 per kg in September, up 27 percent year-on-year, and 60 percent of new Q3 contracts now run for three months or less as shippers refuse to lock in fixed annual rates amid sustained volatility.

Xeneta's latest data shows demand grew 6 percent year-on-year in September, matching August's increase and following 5 percent in July. Capacity grew just 2 percent. The dynamic load factor — Xeneta's utilisation measure — climbed two percentage points to 62 percent, while spot rates rose 2 percent on August's level.

Jet fuel added pressure. Brent crude briefly moved above US$100 a barrel in early September amid continuing Middle East tensions, compounding the late-third-quarter seasonal upswing.

Why are shippers abandoning fixed annual deals?

The contract structure of the airfreight market is shifting fast. In Q3 2026, 60 percent of new contracts were for three months or less, versus 25 percent a year earlier and 47 percent in Q2. Three-month agreements alone accounted for 42 percent of new business, up from 16 percent in Q3 2025.

The share of 12-month contracts fell from 40 percent to 25 percent. Contracts longer than a year made up just 3 percent of new deals.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, said the shift reflects pricing risk shippers are no longer willing to carry. "A one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions," he said. Shippers increasingly want "floating mechanisms" — a base rate adjusted according to market movements.

"There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market," van de Wouw said. "There remains a lot of instability and that's making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions."

For forwarders and carriers, the move to short durations cuts revenue visibility and hands pricing power back to the spot market — precisely where rates are running 27 percent ahead of last year.

What happened to China-Europe e-commerce volumes?

Trade lanes are diverging sharply. China's low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 40 percent year-on-year in August, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data, after a 25 percent drop in July. The decline coincides with the EU's €3 customs duty on individual items, effective 1 July.

China-US e-commerce exports rose 17 percent year-on-year in August, recovering from the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025, though measured against a lower base.

Pricing reflects the split. China-Western Europe spot rates rose 10 percent month-on-month in September to US$4.26 per kg, reversing July and August declines — a rebound Xeneta partly attributes to stronger outbound China demand ahead of Golden Week.

Other corridors began their seasonal recovery:

• Northeast Asia-Europe: up 5 percent to US$4.74 per kg
• Northeast Asia-North America: up 5 percent to US$6.03 per kg
• Southeast Asia-Europe: up 3 percent
• Europe-North America: up 2 percent; North America-Europe up 4 percent

Where is disruption still driving rates?

The Middle East escalation in late February left the sharpest scars on inbound lanes. By week 39 (21–27 September), rates into the region were 91 percent higher from South Asia and 80 percent higher from Europe than pre-escalation levels.

Northeast Asia-North America rates sat 34 percent above late-February levels and Southeast Asia-North America 29 percent higher, supported by recovering e-commerce traffic and shipments linked to AI infrastructure.

Europe-North America remains the outlier, with spot rates still 20 percent below late February — though the gap narrowed from 25 percent in August as summer belly capacity exits the market.

Is a strong Q4 coming?

Despite stronger-than-expected 2026 growth so far, Xeneta expects a relatively subdued fourth quarter. "What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year," van de Wouw said.

The wildcard is ocean freight. Persistent schedule unreliability, renewed Red Sea disruption and port congestion have pushed some Asia-US West Coast ocean rates back toward pandemic-era levels. A wider cost and reliability gap between sea and air could force cargo modal shift.

"We are not yet seeing that in the September data," van de Wouw said. "But it is the factor we are watching most closely."