Global air cargo demand rose 4.4% year-on-year in August while capacity edged down 0.1%, pushing the industry-wide cargo load factor to 46.0% — up 2.0 percentage points from August 2025 — according to figures IATA released on 29 September.

International operations outperformed the headline number, with demand up 5.3% against a marginal 0.1% increase in international available cargo tonne-kilometers. For shippers and forwarders, the message is straightforward: bellies and freighters are flying fuller, and pricing leverage is shifting back toward carriers.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, said demand increased across every region even as capacity contracted slightly. She noted that solid demand and higher load factors allowed airlines to recover part of unusually high fuel costs, and that yields improved month-on-month for the first time since April. She described both developments as encouraging signs heading into the year-end peak season.

Fuel and macro backdrop

The operating environment explains much of the pricing pressure. Jet fuel prices climbed 8.3% month-on-month in August and stood 79.2% above their level a year earlier. Global trade expanded 6.0% year-on-year in July, extending a run of 33 consecutive months of growth. Manufacturing activity strengthened in August as well: the Global Manufacturing Output PMI rose 0.3 points to 53.0, and the New Export Orders Index gained 1.4 points to 51.4. Both readings remained supportive of air cargo demand.

Regional split

North American carriers posted the strongest performance, with demand up 6.6% year-on-year on a 2.5% capacity decline — the tightest supply-demand pairing of any region. Asia-Pacific airlines, the largest bloc with a 35.8% share of 2025 cargo tonne-kilometers, grew demand 4.3% on 1.2% more capacity. European carriers, holding a 21.4% share, lifted demand 4.1% while cutting capacity 3.5%.

Latin American and Caribbean airlines grew demand 5.1% on 3.3% more capacity. Middle Eastern carriers reported the weakest regional growth at 1.0%, with capacity up 3.3%. African airlines saw demand rise 3.0% against a 14.0% surge in capacity — a combination that pressures load factors and yields on the continent.

North America held a 24.6% share of 2025 cargo tonne-kilometers, followed by the Middle East at 13.2%, Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.9%, and Africa at 2.1%.

Trade lanes diverge

Asia–North America led all corridors with 13.2% growth, its seventh consecutive month of expansion, on a 23.5% market share. Intra-Asia traffic rose 6.1% for a 34th straight month of growth, holding a 7.3% share. Europe–North America gained 4.3%, a fourth consecutive monthly increase, on a 13.5% share. Europe–Asia grew 3.1% — a 42nd consecutive month of growth — and retained a 21.5% share.

The Gulf-linked corridors told a different story. Africa–Asia volumes fell 11.9%, a third straight month of decline, on a 1.3% share. Europe–Middle East dropped 12.1% for a sixth consecutive month of contraction, holding a 5.2% share. Middle East–Asia declined 11.0%, also a sixth straight month of contraction, with a 7.4% share. IATA attributed the weakness on Gulf-linked lanes to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Commercial read-through

For carriers, the combination of rising demand, static capacity and record-high fuel costs validates capacity discipline — and the first month-on-month yield improvement since April suggests freight rates are firming before the peak. For shippers, tightening load factors on the transpacific and transatlantic lanes point to tighter space and higher spot rates into the fourth quarter, particularly out of Asian origin markets. Forwarders routing cargo through Gulf hubs face continued disruption and may need to shift to European or Asian gateway alternatives while Middle East corridors remain depressed.

IATA's statistics cover international and domestic scheduled air cargo for both member and non-member airlines. The association represents more than 370 airlines, accounting for roughly 85% of global air traffic.

With demand growing in every region, capacity flat and yields turning upward, the data points to a seller's market for air freight capacity heading into the peak season.