Air cargo shippers are pivoting toward short-term contracts as rising demand tightens available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.

The finding, reported by Air Cargo News, captures a procurement shift in a market where contracted and spot capacity have come under simultaneous pressure. Where shippers once locked in multi-year agreements for budget certainty, many now negotiate on rolling quarterly or monthly terms. The preference runs counter to what airlines typically want, but buyers carry leverage when capacity tightens.

Air cargo demand has stayed hot across the major east-west corridors. E-commerce parcel volumes have remained elevated, pharmaceutical and high-tech shippers continue to prioritize speed over unit cost, and ongoing disruption in ocean shipping - schedule reliability issues, port congestion, and tariff uncertainty - have pushed time-sensitive freight off the water and onto aircraft. Belly supply has grown as passenger networks expanded, but capacity additions have lagged freight demand on the busiest lanes.

What is driving the shift?

Short-term deals give shippers optionality. If spot rates soften in the next quarter, the buyer walks into a new tender at lower rates instead of waiting out a long contract. The trade-off is a higher contracted rate in tight quarters, plus thinner service commitments from carriers less willing to offer priority space on flexible deals.

For carriers, the consequences cut both ways. Tighter conditions support rate levels and load factors, but a heavier mix of short-term business increases revenue volatility and complicates planning on freighter deployment, lease extensions, and charter-in volumes from passenger operators. Forwarders running short-term tenders see spread capture opportunities in volatile markets while watching margins squeeze when benchmark spreads narrow.

Xeneta, founded as an ocean freight benchmark provider, expanded into air cargo as digital procurement tools became standard across logistics teams. The platform tracks contracted and spot pricing across carriers and trade lanes, giving procurement and sales teams independent reference data for negotiations.

How long will the short-term trend hold?

The contractual duration question has long been a flashpoint in air cargo. Airlines prefer annual agreements with minimum-volume guarantees; large shippers prefer the shortest tenor the market will bear, typically quarterly. The current direction of travel favors buyers, and the question is whether carriers hold the line in the next tender cycle or accept shorter tenors to keep utilization high.

Whether the trend persists into peak season depends on capacity supply. If operators add freighters, wet-lease aircraft, or open passenger routes on key lanes, the squeeze eases and shorter deals become less urgent. If supply stays tight, shippers will secure short terms at premium rates through year-end, and carriers will hold pricing power into the next negotiation round.

Procurement teams should expect the next round of tenders to test whether the squeeze has eased or whether short-term contracting becomes the new default for the rest of the year.