Only one of four proposed US Gulf Coast deepwater VLCC terminals is actively moving toward completion, with Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink targeting a Q4 2028 start-up after securing its licence in February 2026 and breaking ground in May, according to shipbroker Gibson.

The remaining three projects have stalled on different choke points. Enterprise's SPOT secured its licence in 2024 but still lacks a positive final investment decision and has issued no updated timeline. Energy Transfer's Blue Marlin remains unlicensed as the operator redirects capital upstream, with a tilt toward natural gas. The Phillips 66-Trafigura Bluewater Texas venture is also unlicensed and is fighting US Environmental Protection Agency air-permit issues.

"US VLCC exports will remain reliant on reverse lightering for at least the next two years," Gibson said, quantifying how exposed US Gulf loadings will stay to Aframax availability and ship-to-ship logistics during peak export windows.

What does the lightering dependency look like in practice?

Gibson's data on PADD 3 — the US Gulf Coast crude hub — captures the volatility it creates. The VLCC share of PADD 3 crude exports swung sharply across the spring-to-autumn window:

• Approximately 50% in May and June
• Below 30% in August
• Recovering to roughly 45% in September

Aframaxes continue carrying a substantial share of exports in the interim. Gibson flagged Aframax tonnage availability and ship-to-ship logistics as the binding constraints whenever crude exports trend higher.

Why are the three rival terminals stuck?

Four forces are squeezing project economics across the US Gulf Coast:

• SPOT lacks a positive FID and has not refreshed its schedule since its 2024 licence
• Energy Transfer has redeployed capital into upstream natural gas, leaving Blue Marlin unlicensed
• Phillips 66 and Trafigura's Bluewater Texas is unlicensed and wrestling EPA air permitting
• Project cost inflation — labour, construction materials and legal exposure — now sits at the centre of every developer's diligence

Texas GulfLink has drawn a partial shield from that pressure through funding channelled via the US-Japan Trade Agreement, which has helped accelerate construction.

Who wins and who loses commercially?

Gibson framed the calculus bluntly: "With demand in advanced Western economies on a downward trajectory, surplus US barrels will increasingly look East." That puts a premium on direct VLCC-loading capacity on the US Gulf, because longer-haul Asian trade fundamentals favour the largest crude carriers over Aframax tonnage.

VLCC owners positioned for Atlantic-to-Asia lifts stand as the structural winners. Aframax operators face mixed signals — sustained cargo share today, but a narrower role once direct-loading infrastructure arrives. Crude marketers and forwarders servicing Asian buyers will keep paying a freight premium tied to multi-leg lightering until direct loading scales. Latin American producers shipping into Asia remain a competing source, and Gibson warned the lack of progress on most US Gulf deepwater terminals could itself become a constraint on US crude's long-haul market share.

What to watch next

Gibson positioned the four-terminal pipeline as the swing factor for US crude export volumes over the next two to four years. The immediate markers are:

• Texas GulfLink construction milestones through 2027 and Q4 2028 start-up readiness
• Any FID movement on Enterprise's SPOT
• Resolution of Bluewater Texas's EPA air-permit challenge
• Updated licensing posture for Blue Marlin

"Texas GulfLink is a positive step," Gibson concluded, "but with the wider project pipeline still uncertain, US export infrastructure may struggle to optimise with the shift in crude trade towards Asia."