VLCC spot earnings climbed above 200,000 USD/day in Q3 2026. MR product tankers averaged around 40,000 USD/day. Ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and Suez diversions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait tied up tonnage faster than Middle East barrels were lost, pushing rates to record highs, according to Veson Nautical's Q4 2026 shipping market outlook.

The tanker strength flows from an expanding disruption footprint. Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb now sit under active threat, and the East-West pipeline serving Yanbu has been damaged. Veson's base case assumes some improvement in Middle East oil flows through Q4 2026, but full restoration remains unlikely before mid-2027. Global oil demand growth turns positive again in 2027, with commercial and strategic inventories seeking replenishment beyond pre-war levels — pointing to solid seaborne tanker demand into that year.

Asset values have tracked earnings higher. Five-year-old VLCC values climbed 70% YTD to USD 196.3 million, and newbuilding VLCC prices rose 8.4% to USD 138 million. Ordering has nearly quadrupled: 198 VLCCs contracted YTD 2026 against 89 for all of 2025, lifting the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to 37%. Crude carriers now account for 80% of all new tanker orders. From 2027, supply growth outpaces demand, with the gap widening through the remaining forecast years.

How firm is the bulker market?

Capesize earnings averaged around 41,000 USD/day in Q3, up 66% year-on-year. Supramax rates reached nearly 20,000 USD/day from around 15,000 USD/day a year earlier. Chinese demand for iron ore and bauxite drove the gains: Chinese exports posted 19.3% YoY growth over the first eight months of 2026, with iron ore imports running at an annualised 1.28 billion tons in July and August even as steel output contracted 3.1%. The pattern points to robust port stockpiling rather than end-use consumption.

The Simandou ramp-up will lengthen average haul distances as long-haul Guinean bauxite and iron ore progressively displace shorter-haul Australian supply, providing structural ton-mile support even as Chinese steel demand softens. Demand growth of roughly 2.6% per year is forecast through 2029, against fleet supply growth of 3.8% — pointing to progressive downward rate pressure as the orderbook delivers into 2027 and 2028. Secondhand values firmed in Q3: five-year-old Capesizes gained 6.5%, Panamaxes 3.5%, Supramaxes 5.2%, and Handys 2.9%.

What does the container orderbook signal for 2027?

Container earnings ticked up approximately 4.1% across vessel sizes in Q3. Early discussion among major liners about a partial Red Sea return has emerged, though the shift remains fragile given continued security concerns further south. Asia-North America volumes improved 3.2% YTD following the tariff truce, while global volume growth of 4.9% YTD kept demand healthy, led by Asia-Europe (+9.1%) and intra-Asia (+6.5%).

The orderbook now exceeds 14 million TEU after more than 3 million TEU was ordered YTD. Net fleet growth is forecast to average 10.9% per year over 2026-2029, materially outpacing TEU-mile demand of 4.9% in 2026 and 4.1% per year across 2027-2029. Container freight rates are forecast to decline approximately 32% on average over the forecast period as supply outruns demand. Scrapping is expected to pick up most in the sub-3,000 TEU segment, where the fleet is oldest.

Can vehicle carriers keep outperforming?

One-year time-charter rates for PCTC Standard averaged 73,300 USD/day in Q3, up 36.9% quarter-over-quarter. PCTC Midsize hit 48,450 USD/day, up 31.4% QoQ. New operators serving Middle East trades alongside deep-sea majors rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope kept the charter market exceptionally tight.

Chinese light vehicle exports rose 68% YoY to 7.1 million units in January-August 2026, with EVs up 114% YoY to more than 2 million units — more than offsetting an 11.6% YoY decline in China's domestic sales. Capacity is set to grow 8.1% this year and 6.4% in 2027, with scrapping virtually non-existent since 2021. More than 2 million vehicles out of China are expected to divert to alternative shipping modes this year simply because ships are not available.

Newbuild contracting has jumped approximately 850% YoY, with 57 orders placed YTD totalling 386,720 CEU — all at Chinese yards for delivery between 2028 and 2030. A return to shorter Suez transits from 2028 still threatens to unwind the current tight supply-demand balance.

How deep does the LPG disruption run?

LPG, petrochemical gas, and ammonia volumes declined further in Q3, but earnings held firm on a wide arbitrage spread, Panama Canal congestion, and wider market inefficiencies. US propane exports rose approximately 9% YTD, partially offsetting lost Middle East volumes. Saudi Aramco has notified customers it will suspend propane exports in H1 2027, weighing on total LPG flows next year even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full.

Panama Canal transits are running at full capacity amid high US activity and rising competition from tankers and LNG carriers, with authorities imposing El Niño-related draught restrictions as a precaution. Middle East LPG export volumes are forecast to fall 48% in 2026, recovering by around 55% in 2027 but remaining roughly 20% below 2025 levels. The VLGC/VLAC orderbook-to-fleet ratio stands at approximately 38% (48% for the medium-sized segment), with net fleet growth forecast to average 9.2% per year — putting market balance under pressure from 2027 given a young fleet offering little scope for scrapping relief.

Across all five markets, the interplay between an escalating Middle East conflict, persistent Red Sea and Hormuz disruption, a surging newbuilding orderbook, and China's structural economic transition will continue to define the trajectory through 2029.