US dry bulk shipments to China grew 104% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2026, as a November 2025 tariff agreement and a recovering grain trade re-routed transpacific bulk volumes back toward American ports.

BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia said the surge was "driven by a 176% increase in grain shipments" after two years of contraction. "Volumes between the two countries weakened in 2025 amid rising trade tensions and higher tariffs. However, an agreement reached in November 2025 lowered tariffs on US grains and set import targets for US soya beans, allowing shipments to partly recover in 2026," Gouveia said.

Coal and petcoke reinforced the grain-led rebound. US coal shipments to China are up 44% year-on-year, and petcoke volumes are up 33%, the latter supported by reduced Saudi cargoes into China. Coal still has far to go: shipments remain 77% below 2024 levels.

Which segments are winning the cargo?

The recovery has concentrated in larger tonnage. Panamax ships have carried 68% of US-to-China dry bulk volumes in 2026, while Supramax vessels took a further 28% — a split that has benefited particularly from the petcoke trade. For owners with Panamax exposure on transpacific routes, the deal flow has translated directly into employment; for charterers, it has widened the pool of competing tonnage bids on US Gulf and West Coast grain loadings.

The fourth quarter should extend the run. "US grain shipments are expected to increase further as this year's soya bean and maize crops are harvested and exported," Gouveia said. He flagged a specific demand lever: "US maize could be in particularly high demand, as attacks on ships in the Black Sea have brought Ukrainian seaborne exports to a halt."

What does the next tariff round cover?

The latest round of US-China negotiations produced an agreement to give more favourable tariff treatment to roughly USD 30bn worth of goods in each direction. Timing and product-specific tariff reductions are still unannounced. China's Ministry of Commerce, however, said more than 90% of covered products would see all additional bilateral tariffs removed, Gouveia noted.

The covered US products include coal and most grains — but exclude soya beans, the single largest US dry bulk export commodity to China. Covered products accounted for just 16% of US dry bulk shipments to China in 2025, down from 35% in 2024, a measure of how far the trade had already fallen before this year's recovery.

Will coal volumes double by 2027?

Beijing has committed to importing at least 10m tonnes of US coal in both 2027 and 2028 as part of the negotiations. Gouveia expects that commitment "to approximately double coal shipments between the two countries, leaving volumes just 2m tonnes below 2024 levels."

The tonne-mile effect may matter more than the tonnage itself. "This would also support tonne-mile demand, as distances for US coal shipments to China are around four times greater than the average for Chinese coal imports," Gouveia concluded — meaning each tonne of Chinese demand shifted from regional suppliers to US loaders pulls roughly four times the shipping capacity out of the market, tightening the supply-demand balance for Panamax owners well beyond what headline tonnage suggests.