China imported 75.5 million tonnes of soybeans by sea in January–August 2026, up 4.0% year on year, consolidating its position as the destination for 65.0% of global seaborne soybean trade, according to Banchero Costa.

The growth comes almost entirely on the back of Brazilian supply. Brazil shipped 57.0 million tonnes to China in the first eight months of 2026, essentially flat at +0.4% y-o-y, and now accounts for 75.5% of Chinese imports. The United States, by contrast, delivered 12.3 million tonnes, down 1.1% y-o-y — a second consecutive weak period after a 10.8% decline in January–August 2025, and well below the 13.9 million tonnes moved in the same window of 2024.

What does the data mean for dry bulk?

The trade is a Panamax story above all. Banchero Costa reports that 93.1% of China's 2025 soybean imports arrived on Panamaxes, including Kamsarmaxes, with Supramaxes carrying 6.3% and Post-Panamaxes just 0.3%. For owners and operators, Chinese soybean demand is therefore a direct driver of Panamax employment on the Brazil–China and US–China lanes.

The port-level picture reinforces that concentration. The top soybean discharge ports in China for January–December 2025 were:

• Rizhao — 9.6 million tonnes
• Machong — 7.4 million tonnes
• Tianjin — 7.2 million tonnes
• Zhangjiagang — 7.0 million tonnes
• Gaogang — 5.4 million tonnes
• Fangcheng — 4.2 million tonnes
• Nantong — 4.2 million tonnes
• Dongjiakou — 4.0 million tonnes
• Ningbo — 3.6 million tonnes

For charterers and forwarders, congestion risk and berth availability at this cluster of northern and Yangtze Delta ports remain the operational variables to watch each season.

How are the exporters performing?

US soybean exports rebounded sharply in 2026. According to Banchero Costa, "in Jan-Aug 2026, soybean exports from the USA increased by +30.9% y-o-y to 19.3 mln tonnes, recovering from a -10.8% y-o-y decline recorded in Jan-Aug 2025." Much of that recovery, however, has flowed to buyers other than China, given the flat US-to-China volumes.

Argentina's position weakened dramatically. The country exported just 3.4 million tonnes in January–August 2026, down 43.1% from 6.0 million tonnes a year earlier, holding a 2.8% share of global exports. Uruguay follows with 1.3% and Canada with 1.0%.

What about other importers?

The European Union, the second-largest importer, cut soybean purchases by 6.2% y-o-y in calendar 2025 to 13.5 million tonnes, but recovered with 5.2% growth in January–August 2026 to 9.7 million tonnes. The EU now accounts for 8.3% of global seaborne soybean imports — roughly one-eighth of China's share.

What happens next for rates and flows?

Seasonality will decide the fourth quarter. Brazilian exports ship mainly from February to July and surface in Chinese import statistics from March to August, while US exports peak in the fourth quarter and dominate the winter months.

Banchero Costa noted that "with the peak Brazilian season now largely reflected in the Jan-Aug 2026 import figures, attention turns to the upcoming US export season in the fourth quarter, which will indicate whether China returns more actively to the US crop this year." With the USA holding only a 16.2% share of Chinese imports so far in 2026, the size of China's US Gulf and US North Pacific bookings over the coming weeks will be the key signal for Panamax ton-mile demand heading into 2027.