Global dry bulk tonne-mile demand reached 16.31 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 6.7% year-on-year and the strongest first-half total in a decade, according to new research from Greece's Ursa Shipbrokers. Cargo volumes rose a far more modest 3.2% — meaning the average tonne of cargo travelled roughly 3.4% further, a gap that directly feeds carrier earnings.

The supply side is doing its part. The actively trading fleet expanded only 3.2% over the same period, leaving transport demand comfortably ahead of vessel supply growth. Ursa described the balance as a "supportive backdrop" for freight rates and secondhand values.

Guinea redraws the map

The shift in trading geography is becoming the sector's central driver. Guinea's emerging iron ore exports reached 11.81m tonnes in January-August — more than the entire net increase in global iron ore trade over the period. A Guinea-China voyage runs around 11,254 nautical miles, broadly equivalent to Brazil-China and more than three times the distance from Western Australia to China.

Bauxite is producing an even larger effect. Ursa data put Guinean exports up almost 20% this year, while the continuing Simandou ramp-up adds another long-haul capesize trade to the market.

Other commodities are reinforcing the pattern. Banchero Costa reports global soybean loadings up 6.4% year-on-year to 122.6m tonnes in January-August, with Chinese imports up 4%. US soybean exports are up almost 31%, potentially adding further long-haul panamax employment as the northern hemisphere export season gathers pace.

Earnings strength across classes

The strength is now visible across vessel classes. Banchero had capesize earnings above $52,000 a day last week, while panamaxes gained 6.9%, supramaxes 1.1% and handysizes 2.3%. Intermodal similarly described an across-the-board positive dry bulk week, with its BDI average at 3,432, up 2%.

For owners, the arithmetic is straightforward: longer voyages on a barely growing fleet absorb tonnage, tightening spot markets and underpinning period cover. For charterers and commodity shippers, the same dynamics mean rising cost exposure into the fourth quarter — a quarter in which dry bulk earnings have historically accelerated.

Asset market confirms the freight signal

VesselsValue says one-year capesize rates climbed to their highest level in more than a decade during September, while 20-year-old cape values jumped around 7.9% in a single month. Five-year capesize values tracked by Intermodal rose 3.5% over September, with kamsarmaxes up 2.8%.

The repricing is getting harder to ignore at the transaction level. Two 2017-built, 261,000 dwt VLOC sisters, Houheng 5 and Houheng 6, have reportedly changed hands at around $70m-$72m each — levels described as decade highs for ships of their vintage.

Affinity reckons dry bulk values have risen an average 13% this year, with ultramaxes up 19% and 10-year-old vessels appreciating 18%, as stronger earnings keep buyers bidding aggressively for prompt tonnage.

With cargo growth, tonne-mile extension, firm period rates and rising asset values all aligned for the first time in years, and Q4 historically the sector's strongest earnings window, the supportive backdrop Ursa describes looks set to keep pressure on spot rates and secondhand prices through the final months of 2026.