Global air cargo tonnages rose 2% week on week in week 38 (14–20 September), marking a fourth consecutive weekly increase and pushing worldwide chargeable weight 8% above year-earlier levels, according to WorldACD Market Data's weekly trends report.

The recovery follows the customary annual dip tied to Labor Day in the United States and Canada on 7 September. Tonnages, rates and capacity all stand higher than a year ago across every major region.

North America drove the weekly gain, with originating volumes rebounding 14% and returning that market to pre-holiday levels. Offsetting the gain, Middle East and South Asia origins fell 4% week on week, and Africa also declined 4%.

Asia Pacific origins led annual growth with an 11% year-on-year increase in tonnages, followed by North America at 8%, Europe at 6%, and gains of 2% each from Middle East and South Asia and from Central and South America.

Rates hold elevated

Average worldwide rates in week 38 were broadly stable on a full-market mix of spot and contract rates. The largest weekly move came from Africa, where full-market rates rose 6% to an average of $2.47 per kilo. Full-market worldwide rates stood 24% above year-earlier levels, with Middle East and South Asia up 49%, Europe and Africa each up 26%, and Asia Pacific origins up 21%.

Worldwide spot rates were flat week on week at $3.45 per kilo despite another increase in jet fuel prices. Africa posted the biggest weekly spot-rate gain at 7%, while Asia Pacific and Europe each edged up 1%. Those increases were partly offset by declines from North America (down 4%), Middle East and South Asia (down 2%) and Central and South America (down 1%).

The $3.45 per kilo worldwide spot average was 33% higher year on year, with every region recording annual increases, most of at least 25%. Central and South America was the exception at 5%. Middle East and South Asia led with a 52% annual rise, followed by North America at 34%, Africa at 31%, Asia Pacific at 30% and Europe at 29%.

Middle East and South Asia volumes soften

Traffic from Middle East and South Asia to the United States fell 5% week on week, including a 5% drop from India, a 17% decline from Bangladesh and a 10% decrease from Sri Lanka, while volumes from some Gulf markets remained volatile. Traffic from the region to Europe was steadier, rising 1% week on week, as increases from Bangladesh offset a significant 14% weekly decline from Sri Lanka.

Capacity stable, Gulf still constrained

Worldwide capacity rose about 1% week on week, as freighter capacity grew nearly 2% and passenger capacity slipped slightly. Total international capacity continued to expand year on year, up 4%, led by a 5% increase in freighter capacity.

Compared with week 7, just before the start of the US-Iran conflict, worldwide capacity in week 38 was up an average of 4%. Capacity to and from Europe rose 19% over that span, while capacity to and from Middle East and South Asia fell 9% and capacity to and from Asia Pacific was about 2% lower. Within the Middle East and South Asia decline, capacity to and from South Asia was about 3% higher, whereas capacity to and from the Gulf area remained down almost 17% since the conflict began. Gulf capacity slipped about 1% in week 38 from the prior week.

Asia Pacific demand mixed ahead of China holidays

Traffic from China and Hong Kong to Europe had been recovering gradually over the previous four weeks following two months of steep declines after the removal of EU de minimis exemptions on 1 July, but volumes slipped back somewhat in week 38, including a 5% weekly drop from Hong Kong. Compared with a year earlier, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe were down 29%, while mainland China volumes were broadly stable with a 2% annual increase.

Spot rates to Europe from Asia Pacific origins remained firm, rising 2% week on week to $4.72 per kilo. Weekly increases came from mainland China (up 4%), Hong Kong (up 1%), Japan (up 3%) and South Korea (up 2%). Rates from Vietnam rose 8% week on week for a second consecutive week to $4.89 per kilo.

Demand from Asia Pacific origins to the United States remained strong, up 13% year on year, helped by large annual increases from South Korea (54%), Japan (47%), China (14%), Thailand (12%), Singapore (10%) and Indonesia (19%). Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US were broadly stable at $6.75 per kilo — about 40% higher than a year earlier, including annual increases from Singapore of 62% and from Japan of 50%.

Holiday window compresses freight planning

China's Mid-Autumn Festival from 25 to 27 September and the National Day Golden Week from 1 to 7 October fall in close succession, compressing production, export handovers and freight planning into a narrow window before October, according to freight forwarders. Air freight often serves as a pressure-release option when ocean freight schedules are missed, prompting urgent shipments, high-value goods and e-commerce traffic to compete for limited uplift before and immediately after Golden Week.

Forwarders reported rising general cargo demand from North China as shippers push cargo out ahead of the holidays, although e-commerce volumes remain relatively soft. New charter capacity entering the market is broadly absorbing the rate pressure that stronger general cargo volumes would otherwise create, keeping rates relatively steady. From Southern China, transpacific demand is rising, but sufficient capacity availability is keeping rates stable, and e-commerce demand from that region also remains relatively low.

The upcoming Chinese holidays may lift transpacific market activity in the coming days, though Asia Pacific westbound demand to Europe currently remains soft, keeping rates relatively subdued on that lane.