Central Asia requires roughly $33bn in annual infrastructure investment, and cargo volumes moving along the Middle Corridor are projected to triple by 2030 — yet the air capacity needed to serve that growth frequently does not exist in the right form, Gerhard Coetzee, Chapman Freeborn's vice president of cargo for India, the Middle East and Africa, told the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit.

His message cuts to the core of the region's logistics problem: demand is no longer the constraint. Capacity is — or rather, the right kind of capacity, in the right place, at the right moment.

Coetzee noted that freight requirements increasingly originate within Central Asia rather than simply transiting it. Mining, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing activity is expanding across the region, and each of those sectors produces heavy, oversized, time-sensitive or project-related cargo that a scheduled network cannot always move efficiently.

Connectivity is improving. China is linking up with growing frequency to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and scheduled services to Europe are gradually taking shape. But better connections do not automatically translate into usable lift for industrial shippers.

"An air cargo network does exist, but it is not necessarily built around the freight these emerging industries produce," Coetzee said. A scheduled service can handle standard freight comfortably. A heavy industrial component bound for a remote site under a project deadline presents an entirely different set of requirements.

The mismatch shows up in several ways. An aircraft may have sufficient available payload while the shipment is simply too large for that aircraft type. The needed route may not be obtainable at the required moment. And the airports involved may lack the infrastructure to support the operation at all.

Airfield constraints become acute with widebody freighters. Coetzee singled out the Boeing 747, Boeing 777 and AN-134 as types that impose specific demands on airports. Consignments such as a 70-tonne transformer or 16-metre pipes require appropriate loading equipment, sufficient runway capability and specialised handling — capabilities that many Central Asian gateways have yet to develop.

Permits and regulatory clearances add another layer of complexity to charter planning, and winter conditions complicate matters further, with de-icing requirements affecting both scheduling and operating costs.

Commercial consequences

For shippers running infrastructure and energy projects across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and neighbouring states, the implications are direct. Booking a charter is not enough; they must verify aircraft type suitability, airport handling capability and permit lead times months ahead of project deadlines, or risk costly delays on critical equipment such as transformers and long-length pipe.

For carriers and charter brokers, the region represents a growth opportunity that scheduled networks alone cannot capture. The gap between available lift and project cargo requirements favours operators with access to heavy-lift aircraft, AN-124-class capability and the expertise to sequence permits, ground handling and seasonal constraints into a workable schedule.

Forwarders, meanwhile, face pressure to move beyond transactional bookings and build charter solutions that account for airport-level limitations at both ends of the route.

Demand drivers keep building

Coetzee's assessment lands amid a strong year for Central Asian air freight. Cargo carriers have been seeking alternatives to the Middle East because of continuing conflicts in the region, pushing additional tonnage through Central Asian gateways. Sources have also indicated that Chinese e-commerce platforms are routing certain shipments to the US through the region, adding e-commerce volume to a freight mix already thick with industrial project cargo.

Coetzee closed with a framing that shippers and carriers would do well to internalise: as Central Asia integrates more deeply into worldwide supply chains, the question will not be how much air cargo capacity the region holds, but whether businesses can obtain the right capacity, in the right location, at the moment their project calls for it.

With Middle Corridor volumes set to triple by 2030 and annual infrastructure spending running at $33bn, that question will define the region's charter market for years to come.