US dry bulk shipments to China have jumped 104% year on year as trade relations between the two countries improve, giving a sharp boost to panamax and supramax earnings on the Pacific.

The recovery is broad-based across commodities. US coal shipments to China are up 44% year on year, and petcoke volumes have climbed 33%. The petcoke gains come largely at the expense of Saudi Arabia, whose shipments to China have declined. Despite the rebound, coal volumes remain 77% below 2024 levels — underscoring how far the trade has to run before it restores prior benchmarks.

Which segments are capturing the cargo?

The panamax segment has carried 68% of US-to-China dry bulk volumes, making it the primary beneficiary of the trade revival. Supramax tonnage has taken another 28%, with petcoke volumes providing particular support for the smaller class.

That cargo split matters commercially. A trade lane weighted toward panamax-sized parcels tightens availability of that class in the Pacific basin, and forwarders fixing US Gulf and West Coast loading slots should expect firmer panamax stems through the fourth quarter.

What happens in Q4?

The pace should accelerate. "As we enter the fourth quarter, US grain shipments are expected to ramp up further, as this year's soya beans and maize crops are harvested and exported. US maize could be in especially high demand, since attacks on ships in the Black Sea have brought Ukrainian seaborne exports to a halt," says Filipe Gouveia of BIMCO.

Black Sea disruption effectively removes a competing maize supplier from the seaborne market at the same moment US harvest exports hit the water — a combination that strengthens handysize and supramax demand in the Gulf and adds upside to freight rates.

What did the tariff deal cover?

The latest round of US-China negotiations produced an agreement to give more favourable tariff treatment to roughly USD 30bn worth of goods in each direction. China's Ministry of Commerce said more than 90% of the products covered would have all additional bilateral tariffs removed, though the timing and product-specific reductions have yet to be announced.

The US product list includes coal and most grains — but excludes soya beans, the largest US dry bulk export commodity to China. The covered products accounted for 16% of US dry bulk shipments to China in 2025, down from 35% in 2024, meaning the agreement's direct reach over the trade is narrower than the headline figure suggests.

How big is the coal commitment?

China has committed to importing at least 10m tonnes of US coal in 2027 and 2028 as part of the negotiations. "This is expected to approximately double coal shipments between the two countries, falling just 2m tonnes short of cargo volumes in 2024. This would also support tonne-mile demand, since distances for US coal shipments to China are around four times greater than the average for Chinese coal imports," Gouveia says.

The tonne-mile effect is the key point for owners. US-to-China coal routes run roughly four times the average sailing distance of Chinese coal imports, so every tonne shifted from Australian, Indonesian or Russian origins to US ports multiplies demand for ship capacity. A doubling of the trade would deliver a disproportionate lift to panamax day rates.

What's the outlook?

For US exporters, the Q4 grain window plus the coal commitment gives visibility into 2027 that has been absent since the trade war began. For carriers, restored long-haul coal flows and a Black Sea supply gap point to sustained Pacific tonne-mile growth. With tariff implementation details still pending and soya beans left outside the agreement, the trajectory of US dry bulk shipments to China now depends on how quickly Beijing converts the USD 30bn framework into effective tariff relief.